A new poll from Lake Research Partners shows Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel leads his rivals, but could likely face a runoff.

The telephone survey of 600 registered and likely Chicago voters shows Emanuel with 38 percent of the vote, followed by Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia at 16 percent and Ald. Bob Fioretti (2nd) at 8 percent. Mayoral candidates Willie Wilson and William "Dock" Walls earned 5 percent and 1 percent of the vote, respectively. Thirty percent of survey respondents were undecided.

The poll was conducted January 15 through January 19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

A Lake Research Partners polling memo, distributed by the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU), says the survey "reveals voters' ongoing dissatisfaction with Mayor Rahm Emanuel, pushing him into a likely runoff against challenger Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia."

"Chicagoans remain highly frustrated with Rahm's lack of action with regard to the violent crime plaguing communities across the city and angry about his unprecedented closure of neighborhood public schools," the memo adds. "The data furthermore suggest Garcia is the candidate best positioned to force a runoff and offer Chicagoans real leadership and a fresh start."

In a match-up between Emanuel and Garcia, the polling shows Emanuel with 44 percent of the vote, compared to Garcia's 28 percent, with 27 percent of respondents undecided.

"Ominously for Rahm, the undecided voters are more likely to have a negative view of him (40% favorable, 45% unfavorable)," the memo says. "Meanwhile, Chuy is largely unknown to undecided voters (48% no opinion, 22% never heard), affording him the opportunity to expand his base and win their support."

The survey was conducted on behalf of the CTU.