Progress Illinois

Yesterday, Democratic congressional candidate Scott Harper lost his race against 13th District GOP Rep. Judy Biggert by a ten point margin -- 54-44 percent.  Here's a statement he released this morning:

Although we fell short in our campaign for change, we came closer than any Democrat in more than two decades to winning back this seat and we made great strides that will undoubtedly help to change the political landscape of this district for years to come.

We are honored and humbled to have earned more votes than any Democratic candidate in the history of the 13th District and we are proud that we stayed focused on the issues that matter most.

Rose, a freckled, brown-haired field organizer, laughed when I asked what time she got up this morning. "Three-fifteen," she said with a slight grin. "But we didn't get to bed until 2:30."

Over the past week, staffers like Rose and a bevy of volunteers for Democrat Scott Harper's 13th District campaign have worked at a frenetic pace. When I arrived at at their Naperville-based headquarters just before 6 AM, 60 canvassers were already out in the field, posting signs and passing out campaign flyers. Throughout the day, the campaign plans to run phone banks from 14 office phones, dispatch volunteers for election protection, and hit targeted precincts with GOTV materials.

According to Harper, his campaign's enthusiasm matches that of the district's voters. "I've been out to train stations and coffee shops and I've knocked on doors," he told me, standing next to his daughter who had flown in from New York City, "and it feels like a lot of people out there want change."

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In a segment on the 13th Congressional District race tonight, ABC 7's Charles Thomas reported that GOP Rep. Judy Biggert is "openly worried about the effect of Democrat Barack Obama on her reelection campaign."  Thomas later featured a clip of Biggert playing up the potential split-tickets in the district (at least in terms of yard signs).  He wrapped up the segment by reporting that the Republican incumbents in tight contests in the Chicago suburbs are "no longer criticizing the Democratic presidential candidate, not wanting to antagonize so many Obama voters." Watch it:

(UPDATE: The Cook Political Report has downgraded IL-13 from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican.")

Speaking of Obama's support in the 13th District, Huffington Post Chicago highlights a tidbit we missed this morning: 

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Scott Harper released his first ad today and, I have to say, it's more visually engaging than any of the other congressional spots I've seen in Illinois this cycle:

Editorial boards at some of the state's largest papers have begun announcing their picks for Congress. The Beachwood Reporter's Steve Rhodes makes a good point when he says some of the choices will probably lead readers to check the front page to see if they've got the right paper

The Sun-Times, which describes the paper's editorial voice as "The Progressive Independent Conscience of the City," is backing Republican candidates in three out of the five most contentious congressional races it's weighed in on thus far. Meanwhile, the Tribune board is endorsing some liberal Democrats in three out of five of the state's most heated congressional contests. Following is a run-down (updated on 10/29):

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The Washington Post's Ben Pershing talks to Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher about the effect of the financial crisis on his down-ballot findings.  Belcher points to his surveys in Illinois' 6th and 13th congressional districts as evidence that support for incumbent Republicans seems to be weakening:

"It was already shaping up to be a 'change' election ... but over the last three weeks we've seen even more Republican districts open up, with Independent voters taking a look at Democrats," Belcher said in an interview last week. "It's a 'change plus economics' election. So you have these two cross-pressures."

In Illinois' 13th district, an exurban Chicago seat where veteran Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is running for re-election, Belcher found that voters trust Democrats to fix the economy more than Republicans by a 19-point margin.

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Last night on WTTW, 13th District GOP Rep. Judy Biggert and Democratic challenger Scott Harper appeared together for a discussion that largely focused on the economy and ongoing financial crisis.  Biggert's performance didn't exactly instill confidence, however.  Simply put, she seemed a bit out of it. 

Check out her answer to a question about taxes.  Her argument -- this is no time for tax hikes -- is pretty straightforward and unsurprising coming from the lips of a GOP congresswoman.  But watch as she appears to just lose her train of thought:

That's not the way you want to end a debate.

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Yesterday, marked the deadline for congressional candidates to file their quarterly fundraising reports.  As in the first and second quarters, we've compiled the figures in the table below.

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Scott Harper, the Democratic candidate challenging GOP Rep. Judy in the 13th District, is less than two hours away from completing a 24-hour tour of the district.  When I first heard about the idea, I assumed that he would be taking a break in the wee hours.  But I stand corrected.  A look at the schedule shows that he kept on moving straight through the night, even meeting with night-shift workers at 3:30 this morning:

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Based on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) latest decision to add the 13th Congressional District contest to its list of "emerging races," it appears that party leaders are increasingly confident that they have a shot at winning the Republican-controlled seat this fall.

Congressional Quarterly hinted that Democratic candidate Scott Harper was looking viable when it changed the 13th's status from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican" in July. "This a race to keep an eye on for signs of increased competitiveness," CQ reported.

Biggert seemed to be feeling the heat at the time. Days later, she released internal polling numbers to The Hill as evidence of her popularity among the district's voters.

An ability to raise some serious campaign cash -- $375,000 as of the end of June (plus $146,000 of his own money) -- is what put Harper on the radar of Democratic party leaders.

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