White House '08

Ah, Election Day '08

Josh Kalven — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 07:23:13 -0800

November 4 of last year. What a day it was. Here's a flashback to the scene that morning in Chicago:

Lake Co. Early Voting Lifts Obama In Indiana

Josh Kalven — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 14:35:46 -0800

Of all the surprises to emerge from the 2008 electoral map, Barack Obama's victory in Indiana has to be the sweetest. And most impressive. Every single county in the state shifted towards the Democratic candidate on Tuesday (compared to 2004), leading him to a 26,000-vote margin of victory.

Of all the red states won back by the Democrats on Tuesday, Indiana represented the steepest climb. In 2004, George W. Bush had won the Hoosier State by over 510,000 votes -- a greater margin than in any of the other states turned blue by Obama this week:

So how did the Democrats knock off the Hoosier State?

Marion County, home to Indianapolis, played a big role. While John Kerry won the county by 6,000 votes in 2004, Obama ultimately achieved a 105,000-vote margin there. That took a sizeable chunk out of the Republican advantage in the state.

The rest of the counties did their part as well, each giving more of their vote to the Democrat, as compared to in 2004. The map below, courtesy of the New York Times, shows those shifts, with the darkest blue areas representing at least a 15-point move to the left:

As you can see on the national version of this map, no state swung more heavily towards the Democrat than Indiana:

In terms popular vote, the county with the second-highest swing towards the Democratic candidate was Lake County. And a glance at the figures released by the county clerk suggests that early voters were the reason.

In 2004, 12,683 Lake Co. voters took advantage of early voting. That number doubled to 24,378 this year, thanks in large part to the addition of early voting sites in Gary, Hammond, and East Chicago, all three of them highly populated and reliably Democratic. As we reported last month, local GOP officials fought tooth-and-nail to keep this from happening. Citing technicalities regarding the board of elections' approval of the extra early voting sites, the Republicans filed legal challenges to keep them from opening. The sites did eventually open and a superior court judge threw out the GOP lawsuits, but not until six days of early voting in these areas had been lost.

Looking at the election results in the county, it's not difficult to see why the GOP was so scared of expanding access. Of the 24,378 early voters, 20,757 cast their ballot for the Democratic candidate, while only 2,778 favored John McCain.

Those 20,757 voters represent 80 percent of Obama's margin of victory in the state.

Assuming that many of them wouldn't have been able to make it to the polls on Election Day -- due to work schedules, etc. -- it's plain to see why the fight to expand early voting was so crucial. Credit goes to all those who waged it, particularly SEIU Illinois (which sponsors this site). Several weeks ago, we chronicled their impressive work on the ground in Northwest Indiana. It's clear that it paid off.

Setting The Stage

Josh Kalven — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 12:58:27 -0800

A few hours ago, I took a quick tour of stage and surroundings where Barack Obama will deliver his Election Day speech tomorrow night. As you can see in the picture above (click for larger version), the podium is in place. Much like the stage at Invesco Field, it sits at the end of runway which will extend into the crowd. Unlike Denver, however, the area around it is more or less enclosed on three sides. As a result, it's surprisingly intimate. Those lucky -- and early -- enough to watch the speech from these confines are going to be in for a real treat.

On the East, behind the stage, is a curved blue wall (no Roman columns this time.) To the South is a row of seven elevated platforms ("pods") where the networks will base their anchors and correspondents. To the East, about a hundred feet across from the podium, is an absolutely huge, terraced riser, reminscent of the stands at a racetrack. Then, to the North, is Hutchinson Field's open expanse, likely to be filled hours before the speech begins. Beyond that ... who knows. The speakers are big and the park is vast. It's gonna be a madhouse.

More photos below.

Columbus Drive has been shut down and satellite trucks from an array of national and international news outlets are already parked.

The press filing tent, meanwhile, is enormous:

The podium, head-on:

McCain To Make Indiana Stop Tomorrow

Josh Kalven — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 08:20:08 -0800

In a last-minute attempt to shore up support in the Hoosier State, John McCain is going to make a pit-stop at the Indianapolis airport tomorrow:

Republican Sen. John McCain will make his first Indiana campaign stop in more than four months -- a rally at the Indianapolis airport Monday afternoon, the day before voters choose the nation's next president. [...]

Despite the unusual closeness of the race, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told reporters in a conference call Friday morning that "we love the results of the campaign we have going on there."

He cited a poll by Rasmussen, released this week, that showed McCain with a 3 percentage-point lead, a statistical dead heat given the poll's margin of error.

With each of these developments, I can't resist re-posting this quote about Indiana from mid-September:

Indiana Republicans proudly say they don't need to pay for advertising because the Democrats are merely playing catch up. "We want [the GOP] to put resources in the true battleground states," says Kevin Ober, the Indiana Republican Party's executive director, adding: "The polls are already showing us ahead."

Here's Pollster.com's polling average in the state since the above comment was made:

(H/T Blue Indiana)

Ditka The Latest Addition To McCain's Roster (UPDATED w/video)

Josh Kalven — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 12:24:50 -0700

A meeting of the minds:

The Wall Street Journal has the full story.

UPDATE: Here's some video, via MSNBC:

Don't Forget About The Circuit Courts!

Adam Doster — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 08:53:22 -0700

Much has been made this election cycle about the future composition of the Supreme Court, and with good reason. If John McCain wins Tuesday, it's practically assured that he will appoint hardline conservative judges to the bench, pushing the court further rightward and likely endangering the reproductive rights of women, whose concerns he openly mocked in the final debate. But Alexander Wohl made a valid and often overlooked point at the American Prospect yesterday -- the next president will have a major opportunity to reshape the nation's legal landscape through appointments to the 13 federal appellate courts, as well.

Instructive here is research from Russell Wheeler of The Brookings Institution. According to Wheeler, it's likely that the 111th Congress will create 14 new circuit judges positions as recommended by the United States Judicial Conference. He also estimates that half the circuit judges who are now eligible or will become eligible for retirement by 2011 will exercise that right (even though they have lifetime appointments).

If that's the case, the partisan make-up of the Appeals courts will follow the SCOTUS pattern. Wheeler predicts President McCain would increase the total proportion of Republican appointees from 56 percent to 74 percent and reduce the proportion of Democratic appointees from 36 percent to 26 percent. All 13 courts of appeals would have Republican appointee majorities, as well, up from the current 10. President Obama would likely do just the opposite, reducing the proportion of Republican appointees from 56 percent to 42 percent and increasing the proportion of Democratic appointees to 58 percent. Courts with solid Democratic majorities would also jump from zero to four and those with slight Democratic appointee majorities would move from one to four.

As an example, let's take the Seventh District Court of Appeals (which roughly covers (PDF) Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin). Currently, the court boasts a 7-3 Republican advantage with one vacancy, which President Bush is trying to fill before he leaves office. Under a Democratic administration, Wheeler predicts the court will ultimately feature a slight Democratic advantage, thanks to the possible retirements of five judges appointed by Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

Why are these appointments so important? Wohl explains:

This is not to say that federal judges work from party talking points; most take seriously their independence, which is, after all, the reason behind their constitutionally mandated lifetime tenure. Nonetheless, the choice of a judge by a president is an inherently political undertaking, and different judicial philosophies of constitutional interpretation can lead to vastly different results in judicial decisions.

To put it plainly: Dem-appointed judges are more likely to issue progressive-friendly decisions, whether on environmental protection, employment discrimination, or reproductive rights. And because the federal appeals courts provide the final decision on more than 60,000 cases annually, Wohl describes these judicial bodies as the "court[s] of last resort." Just another reason to sweat it out next Tuesday.

AP Debunks McCain's "Obama The Redistibutor" Attacks

Josh Kalven — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:58:16 -0700

The Associated Press is pushing back against John McCain's distortions of comments by Barack Obama during that 2001 discussion on Chicago Public Radio:

"It's always more interesting to hear what people have to say in these unscripted moments," McCain told a rally in Dayton, Ohio, alluding to Obama's now well-known exchange in Ohio with Joe the Plumber. "And, today, we heard another moment like this from Sen. Obama.

"In a radio interview that was revealed today, he said that, quote, One of the tragedies of the civil rights movement is that it didn't bring about a redistribution of wealth in our society."

Obama never said that, according to an audio file circulated by Naked Emperor News, a Web site with many postings critical of Obama. Fox News also posted a partial transcript of the interview.

What Obama called a tragedy was the civil rights movement's focus on the court, rather than on "political and community organizing activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalitions of power through which you bring about redistributive change."

NW Indiana Telemarketers Walk Out Over McCain Scripts

Adam Doster — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 15:12:18 -0700

When detailing the slime oozing from the McCain campaign last week, we highlighted the story of Ted Zoromski, a Middleton, WI resident who quit his job at a telemarketing firm when they asked him to read a script bashing Barack Obama. As it turns out, Zoromski isn't the only Midwesterner refusing to spew this nonsense. TPM's Greg Sargent has the details:

Some three dozen workers at a telemarketing call center in Indiana walked off the job rather than read an incendiary McCain campaign script attacking Barack Obama, according to two workers at the center and one of their parents.

Nina Williams, a stay-at-home mom in Lake County, Indiana, tells us that her daughter recently called her from her job at the center, upset that she had been asked to read a script attacking Obama for being "dangerously weak on crime," "coddling criminals," and for voting against "protecting children from danger."

Williams' daughter told her that up to 40 of her co-workers had refused to read the script, and had left the call center after supervisors told them that they would have to either read the call or leave, Williams says. The call center is called Americall, and it's located in Hobart, IN.

It's pretty astonishing that on the precipice of a major recession, hard-working Hoosiers would give up work because they disagreed with the political tenor of the messages they were asked to read. That takes some guts.

Another Huge Swing-State Rally For Obama

Josh Kalven — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 13:49:48 -0700

Last weekend it was Missouri, where 80,000 to 100,000 showed up in St. Louis to hear Barack Obama speak. Today, he held a rally in Denver, CO, where the police estimated 100,000 came out to see him.

Image courtesy of Obama blogger Amanda Scott.

Robocalls Hit The Midwest

Adam Doster — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 07:52:59 -0700

With time running out and the polls holding steady, a desperate John McCain is throwing the kitchen sink at Barack Obama. In that sink are a boatload of robocalls, a tactic he referred to as "hate calls" when they were used against him eight years ago. As with so many other issues this cycle, McCain has now flipped and is deploying them judiciously as part of an effort to raise concerns about his rival's "character."

One call suggests Obama can't be trusted to keep America safe because he "worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home and killed Americans." According to the folks at Talking Points Memo, who created a great interactive map detailing where McCain's slime is surfacing, the Ayers call has gone out to homes in neighboring Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri. The call is so nasty that one Wisconsin resident quit his gig at a telemarketing firm whose job it was to conduct the calls. You can listen to it here.

Another popular call features a smear we know all too well: Obama is an "abortion extremist". Jessica Valenti at Feministing provides the audio here, which is reaching households in Wisconsin and Indiana.

To their credit, the Obama campaign has challenged McCain on his robo shenanigans, with Joe Biden asking McCain to "bring down those robo-calls" on Tuesday. "If it's about the economy, argue about the economy," Biden said, "not about Barack Obama's character." But with a campaign struggling to form a coherent message or dent Obama's lead, we shouldn't hold our breath.