Progress Illinois

Yesterday, Democratic congressional candidate Scott Harper lost his race against 13th District GOP Rep. Judy Biggert by a ten point margin -- 54-44 percent.  Here's a statement he released this morning:

Although we fell short in our campaign for change, we came closer than any Democrat in more than two decades to winning back this seat and we made great strides that will undoubtedly help to change the political landscape of this district for years to come.

We are honored and humbled to have earned more votes than any Democratic candidate in the history of the 13th District and we are proud that we stayed focused on the issues that matter most.

Rose, a freckled, brown-haired field organizer, laughed when I asked what time she got up this morning. "Three-fifteen," she said with a slight grin. "But we didn't get to bed until 2:30."

Over the past week, staffers like Rose and a bevy of volunteers for Democrat Scott Harper's 13th District campaign have worked at a frenetic pace. When I arrived at at their Naperville-based headquarters just before 6 AM, 60 canvassers were already out in the field, posting signs and passing out campaign flyers. Throughout the day, the campaign plans to run phone banks from 14 office phones, dispatch volunteers for election protection, and hit targeted precincts with GOTV materials.

According to Harper, his campaign's enthusiasm matches that of the district's voters. "I've been out to train stations and coffee shops and I've knocked on doors," he told me, standing next to his daughter who had flown in from New York City, "and it feels like a lot of people out there want change."

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In a segment on the 13th Congressional District race tonight, ABC 7's Charles Thomas reported that GOP Rep. Judy Biggert is "openly worried about the effect of Democrat Barack Obama on her reelection campaign."  Thomas later featured a clip of Biggert playing up the potential split-tickets in the district (at least in terms of yard signs).  He wrapped up the segment by reporting that the Republican incumbents in tight contests in the Chicago suburbs are "no longer criticizing the Democratic presidential candidate, not wanting to antagonize so many Obama voters." Watch it:

(UPDATE: The Cook Political Report has downgraded IL-13 from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican.")

Speaking of Obama's support in the 13th District, Huffington Post Chicago highlights a tidbit we missed this morning: 

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Scott Harper released his first ad today and, I have to say, it's more visually engaging than any of the other congressional spots I've seen in Illinois this cycle:

Last night on WTTW, 13th District GOP Rep. Judy Biggert and Democratic challenger Scott Harper appeared together for a discussion that largely focused on the economy and ongoing financial crisis.  Biggert's performance didn't exactly instill confidence, however.  Simply put, she seemed a bit out of it. 

Check out her answer to a question about taxes.  Her argument -- this is no time for tax hikes -- is pretty straightforward and unsurprising coming from the lips of a GOP congresswoman.  But watch as she appears to just lose her train of thought:

That's not the way you want to end a debate.

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Scott Harper, the Democratic candidate challenging GOP Rep. Judy in the 13th District, is less than two hours away from completing a 24-hour tour of the district.  When I first heard about the idea, I assumed that he would be taking a break in the wee hours.  But I stand corrected.  A look at the schedule shows that he kept on moving straight through the night, even meeting with night-shift workers at 3:30 this morning:

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Our senatorial neighbor to the north, Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, is lending a hand to two congressional candidates here in Illinois. The progressive champion's political action committee, the Progressive Patriots Fund, has vowed to donate $5,000 to 10 House challengers in emerging races that haven't generated much support from traditional Democratic organizations. Among the candidates identified for Feingold's Expand the Map" campaign are Scott Harper in the 13th and Colleen Callahan in the 18th. You can find more information here.

(Thanks to commenter markg8 for sending in the tip.)

Based on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) latest decision to add the 13th Congressional District contest to its list of "emerging races," it appears that party leaders are increasingly confident that they have a shot at winning the Republican-controlled seat this fall.

Congressional Quarterly hinted that Democratic candidate Scott Harper was looking viable when it changed the 13th's status from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican" in July. "This a race to keep an eye on for signs of increased competitiveness," CQ reported.

Biggert seemed to be feeling the heat at the time. Days later, she released internal polling numbers to The Hill as evidence of her popularity among the district's voters.

An ability to raise some serious campaign cash -- $375,000 as of the end of June (plus $146,000 of his own money) -- is what put Harper on the radar of Democratic party leaders.

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The Hill has an interesting article out on internal polling released by 13th District GOP Rep. Judy Biggert. The mid-June survey by American Viewpoint Inc. shows her leading Democratic challenger Scott Harper by 25 points and puts her approval rating at 67 percent. The Harper campaign begs to differ:

Democrat Scott Harper’s campaign disputed those numbers, citing its own polling data, which it says shows the incumbent’s job approval below 50 percent. [...]

Harper’s campaign manager, Sarah Topy, said the Biggert campaign’s decision to release the poll underscored the race’s competitiveness, arguing that Harper is the most serious challenger Biggert has ever faced.

“This is a real race,” Topy added. “Voters are tired of failed leadership and the Bush-Biggert agenda.”

Who knows what the actual landscape looks like in the 13th at the moment. But Topy is right that Biggert's decision to release internal numbers -- to a national outlet, no less -- proves that she's feeling some serious pressure in the wake of Harper's competitive second quarter fundraising.

UPDATE: The Harper campaign has released some of their own 13th District polling numbers (conducted by Fako & Associates between July 15 and July 17). The highlights:

- 71 percent of respondents feel the country is on the "wrong track."

- Biggert's approval rating dropped by 48 percent in November 2007 to 43 percent.

- Democratic affiliation is gradually increasing in the district, while GOP affilitation is dropping.

Yesterday, I had a chance to talk with 13th District Democratic congressional candidate Scott Harper at the Austin Convention Center, where Netroots Nation is being held. I asked him about his solid fundraising during the second quarter and about his thoughts on the rising unemployment rate in Illinois: