Progress Illinois

On my way east from Joliet to Indiana this afternoon, I swung by the Mokena-based campaign office of Marty Ozinga. The 11th District GOP congressional candiate operates out of an office building tucked behind his own massive concrete plants. I figured I'd hang around the parking lot and talk to some volunteers as they made their way to or from the building.

I waited. And waited. And walked around the building. And stood by the door. But I didn't see one soul. Granted, it's entirely possible that his field staff was already hard at work getting Republicans to the polls. Unfortunately for 11th District conservatives, I kind of doubt it.

Across the country, heavy turnout has forced many voters to endure seemingly interminable lines. Democratic congressional candidate Debbie Halvorson, on the other hand, breezed right through her polling place in far-south suburban Crete. And frankly, that was just fine with her. "My precinct is technically more Republican," she told me from her campaign headquarters in Joliet.  "So there was no line at all! I got right in."

That's not to say turnout was depressed everywhere in the sprawling 11th Congressional District. Only 30,000 people took advantage of early voting there, in part because of the location of various county clerk's offices.  But Halvorson campaign manager Brian Doory said polling places were jammed this morning in Kankakee (a Democratic stronghold), Bourbonnais, and Frankfort.

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GOP congressional candidate Marty Ozinga had loaned $320,000 of his own money to his 11th District campaign by the end of the third quarter. Campaign finance reports show that, in the month since, he has given an additional $250,000 to the effort, bringing his total personal contribution to $570,000 this election year. This amount flies in the face of Ozinga's statement in September that he wouldn't be "writing big checks for my own campaign. I just don't believe in that."

It also begs the queston: if the Supreme Court had not struck down the Millionaire's Amendment earlier this year, would Democrat Debbie Halvorson now be able to raise some last-minute funds from her maxed-out donors?

First some background.

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When hundreds of thousands of Chicago residents took to the streets in 2006 to protest congressional efforts to criminalize illegal immigrants, they joined millions across the nation in pledging: "Today we march, tomorrow we vote."

Two years later, many of those same folks poised to deliver on that message.  At a pre-election rally on Chicago's Near West Side last night, motivated activists and volunteers geared up to move more than 100,000 immigrant voters to the polls on November 4.

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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has a new ad out hitting 11th District GOP candidate Marty Ozinga as "out for himself -- not for us."  Watch it:

The DCCC also has a new spot up in the 10th District that uses snippets from local media outlets to whack GOP Rep. Mark Kirk:

Editorial boards at some of the state's largest papers have begun announcing their picks for Congress. The Beachwood Reporter's Steve Rhodes makes a good point when he says some of the choices will probably lead readers to check the front page to see if they've got the right paper

The Sun-Times, which describes the paper's editorial voice as "The Progressive Independent Conscience of the City," is backing Republican candidates in three out of the five most contentious congressional races it's weighed in on thus far. Meanwhile, the Tribune board is endorsing some liberal Democrats in three out of five of the state's most heated congressional contests. Following is a run-down (updated on 10/29):

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Roll Call has conducted the latest poll in the 11th Congressional District, and like the internal survey released on Friday and our own poll published on Monday, this one shows Democrat Debbie Halvorson with support in the 50 percent range and a double-digit lead over her Republican opponent:

Survey USA for Roll Call. 10/20-21. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Marty Ozinga (R): 37%
Jason Wallace (G): 9%

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Here's the latest ad from 11th District Democratic candidate Debbie Halvorson, which hits Republican Marty Ozinga on his concrete company's history of late taxes, which we wrote about back in July.  Watch it:

U.S. News & World Report's Washington Whispers blog has gotten ahold of a so-called "death list" penned by "one of the key House GOP vote counters." The memo suggests that House Republicans fear a net loss of as many as 34 seats on November 4.  It also divides the at-risk races into various categories.  For instance, "Rating 1" connotates those GOP-held seats that are "likely gone."  Among the ten races with this rating is the 11th Congressional District contest between Republican Marty Ozinga and Democrat Debbie Halvorson. 

Apparently, the Republican leadership believes the polls and doesn't have much faith in the chances of a "late Ozinga surge."

Looking at the entire spread, DailyKos' BrownSox comes to this conclusion: "Without getting ahead of ourselves, I don't think our side is the only one acknowledging the possibility of a 'wave election.' "

After our poll in the 11th Congressional District confirmed internal polling showing Democratic candidate Debbie Halvorson up by about 20 points, the Swing State Project shifted their rating for the race from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic."

Meanwhile, the 10th District race remains a toss-up, while the contests for the 6th, 13th, and 18th districts are listed as "races to watch."