Progress Illinois

Yesterday, Swing State Project got ahold of a poll conducted for 10th Congressional District candidate Dan Seals by Anzalone Liszt.  The survey shows Seals (the Democrats' IL-10 candidate in both 2006 and 2008) with much higher name identification than State Rep. Julie Hamos (83% to 18%, respectively).  Not surprisingly, he is also way, way ahead of her at this early juncture:

Dan Seals: 63
Julie Hamos: 8
Elliot Richardson: 2
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Despite Seals' built-in advantage, Hamos has a good amount of time to introduce herself to the district -- though she'll need to raise a good amount of early money to do it. Head over to SSP to read the full polling memo, which is clearly intended to discourage her from pursuing the seat.

Speaking of which, Hamos appeared on Bill Cameron's WLS show on August 2 and had an extended conversation about her personal history, the upcoming campaign, and the issues of the day.  During the interview, she noted that her campaign has so far secured $250,000 in donation pledges (up from the $200,000 figure she cited in her recent interview with Progress Illinois). Listen to the entire WLS segment here.

Now that GOP Rep. Mark Kirk has officially launched his U.S. Senate bid, the race is on for his soon-to-be-vacated 10th Congressional District seat.  Having poured substantial sums of money into last year's unsuccessful challenge by Dan Seals, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) likely would have stayed away from the race in 2010 if Kirk had stayed put.  But with the seat open, you can bet they'll be targeting it once the general election rolls around.  The question is this: Who will emerge as the Democratic candidate?

Well, as Capitol Fax reports, Seals announced via email today that he plans to take a third shot at the district:

I am running to help the families of our community get back on solid ground. I have been struck by how this economic downturn has hit people of all communities and economic strata. I will work to make healthcare and energy costs more affordable, while focusing on job growth for our community. I know that President Obama shares these values, and I look forward to the opportunity to join President Obama in working towards a brighter future for our children and our community.

We wrote recently about State Sen. Michael Bond (D-Grayslake), who began raising money for a 10th District bid less than two months ago.  Susan Garrett (D-Lake Forest) is another state lawmaker thought to be considering a bid.  However, Roll Call reports today that she is staying put and Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) is looking at the race:

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As we've repeatedly noted, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk seems to have set his sights on a U.S. Senate run.  If he ultimately takes the plunge, two-time Democratic challenger Dan Seals would be ready to go after his 10th District seat, according to an article today in Roll Call (subscription required):

“I think it’s a huge opportunity to pick up,” Illinois Democratic consultant Eric Adelstein said. “To his credit, [Kirk has] proven he’s pretty hard to beat.”

[Illinois Democratic consultant Eric] Adelstein said several Democrats will be interested in an open seat. The 2006 and 2008 Democratic nominee against Kirk, attorney Dan Seals, would likely run again if Kirk leaves, his former campaign manager Patrick Mogge confirmed.

“No one knows the 10th district better than Dan Seals,” Mogge said. “I know he’s interested in running again if it’s an open seat.”

While Adelstein predicts that Seals would clear the Democratic field, the article also mentions State Sens. Michael Bond and Susan Garrett as possible candidates should Kirk vacate the seat. On the Republican side, seven-term State Rep. Beth Coulson would reportedly consider running, even after narrowly surviving an intense re-election campaign in 2008. State Sens. Matt Murphy and Dan Duffy are rumored to be interested as well, but both might be too conservative for a district trending Democratic, according to John Russell, a onetime staffer to former Speaker Dennis Hastert. “Unless there is a Kirk or John Porter clone waiting in the wings with the ability to raise significant dollars," Russell told Roll Call, "the seat could belong to a moderate Democrat for the foreseeable future."

CBS 2's Mike Flannery sorted through the speculation about Obama's U.S. Senate replacement last night and offered up some interesting -- and unsourced -- developments.  According to Flannery, the top three names on Gov. Blagojevich's shortlist are Tammy Duckworth, Emil Jones, and Rep. Luis Gutierrez.  He further reported that former 10th District congressional candidate Dan Seals is perhaps being considered and that sources "all but rule out Jesse Jackson Jr." as a potential pick.  Finally, Attorney General Lisa Madigan distanced herself from the process.  Watch it:

Meanwhile, Sen. Dick Durbin indicated yesterday that he's hoping to meet with Blagojevich to discuss the matter today:

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GOP Rep. Mark Kirk -- who hasn't released an internal poll since mid-September -- asserted yesterday that polls have shown him running "five to ten points ahead of my opponent the whole way through."  From CBS 2's report on the 10th Congressional District race:

The whole way through, huh?

We've been wondering whether Barack Obama was going to wade into the tight 10th Congressional District race.  And today we got our answer. 

Take a listen to Dan Seals' new radio ad:

Internal mp3

On October 21, Democratic candidate Dan Seals' congressional campaign dropped off 8,200 pieces of mail at the post office.  As is customary with political materials, the campaign had sleeved and red-tagged the delivery, which was subsequently transferred to a distribution facility in Palatine.  About a week later, they realized that the mail hadn't hit any mailboxes in the 10th District and made repeated calls to the post office.  On Wednesday, October 29, they learned what had happened.  From an email sent to Seals supporters today:

After realizing that supporters had not received the letter, we discovered that the mail had been set aside and out of sight at the post office. The letters were supposed to have been treated as first class mail. They were not.

Very strange. The sleeves and red tags had also been removed, according to the campaign. 

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In the first 15 days of October, Democratic challenger Dan Seals outpaced GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in fundraising by more than $100,000.  According to his "pre-general" Federal Election Commission filing, Seals raised $233,000 during this brief period, retaining $269,000 cash-on-hand. Meanwhile, Kirk raised $127,000 and was left with $885,000 cash-on-hand. 

Seals is also benefiting from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's huge, last-minute advertising buy in the district. The Swing State Project recently reported that, on October 28, the DCCC dropped $957,000 on the race.

From the Des Plaines Journal's endorsement of 10th Congressional District Democratic challenger Dan Seals:

During the grueling contest, the usually moderate and thoughtful [GOP Rep. Mark] Kirk has resorted to negative advertising to get his message out. He has also limited his availability to the public, we guess, having made the decision to rely on TV ads and mailings. This oftentimes happens when an incumbent fears that he might not be reelected. If Kirk is not engaged and responsive to his community while campaigning, it is unlikely he would do so while in office. If Seals becomes the next congressman, he would do well to remember that lesson.

The Journal endorsed Democratic challenger Jill Morgenthaler in the 6th District, citing "her fresh approach, sound, cool judgment, and worldly experience." 

Other endorsements of note this week: the SouthtownStar backed Democrat Debbie Halvorson in the 11th District and the Sun-Times voiced support for Republican incumbent Judy Biggert in the 13th.  We've updated our endorsement round-up accordingly.

In a poll commissioned by Daily Kos and conducted October 20-22, Research 2000 found 10th District Democratic challenger Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by six points, 49-43 percent.  From Markos' write-up:

Last time we polled this race, the Kirk campaign absolutely freaked out, accusing us of being anti-semitic because we (admittedly) polled during Rosh Hashanah in one of the most Jewish districts in the country. Their argument was that it was our dastardly evil plot to disenfranchise Jews, which was weird since Jewish voters are some of the most loyal Democrats in the country. Our theory was that we had undercounted Seals support in that first poll because of its timing, but Kirk saw it differently.

Hilariously, a few days after our poll, SUSA came up with their own, and that one had SEALS up 52-44. Suddenly, the Kirk campaign loved our poll, and used it to push back against the SUSA one which, unfortunately for Kirk, wasn't conducted during a high holy Jewish holiday.

Neither was this one. So what has changed? Undecided voters. Seals went from 70-12 among Democrats to 83-10.