Mark Kirk Appears On NBC 5's City Desk

In an episode that filmed last week and aired yesterday morning, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic challenger Dan Seals appeared separately on NBC 5's City Desk.  Host Carol Marin immediately asked Kirk why he refused to directly debate Seals on the program.  Kirk first tried to deflect the question, then stated, "Actually it would have been fine with me."  Watch it:

But while Kirk suggested it somehow wasn't his decision, the Seals campaign made clear yesterday that they were more than willing to debate the GOP incumbent on NBC 5's airwaves. 

Continue reading »

Seals Raises $700,000 In 3rd Quarter

After GOP Rep. Mark Kirk last week reported raising $850,000 during the third quarter, Democratic challenger Dan Seals announced some impressive numbers of his own this morning.  From a press release:

Today, Democratic Congressional Candidate Dan Seals' campaign reported that it had raised over $700,000 in the 3rd financial quarter, posting their strongest quarterly numbers yet. While Mark Kirk's fundraising stalled—he reported raising less than he had during the 2nd financial quarter—Seals' campaign fundraising continued to build momentum, raising approximately $70,000 more than he had in the previous 3 month period.

On the tails of the Research 2000 poll released yesterday showing a six-point race, the Seals campaign has to be feeling pretty good today.

Research 2000 Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Only Six Points

On Friday's edition of WTTW's Chicago Tonight, the "Week In Review" panel discussed Illinois' tightest congressional races, specifically the contests in the 10th and 11th districts.  While discussing the former, NBC5's Mary Ann Ahern described GOP Rep. Mark Kirk as "doing very well so far in the polls" vis-a-vis Democratic challenger Dan Seals.  This left me scratching my head a bit because, over the past two months, we've seen only two polls out of the 10th, both of them internals.  A poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Seals trailing Kirk by only seven in mid-August.  Meanwhile, a poll paid for by the Kirk campaign in mid-September found the incumbent with a 22-point lead.

Well, now there's a new poll on the scene, commissioned by the liberal website Daily Kos and conducted by the nonpartisan Research 2000 between September 30 and October 1.  It shows Kirk leading Seals by only six points, 44-38 percent. 

Continue reading »

Freedom's Watch Drops $150K Into IL-10

Last week, a spokesman for the conservative group Freedom's Watch told the Daily Herald that it was "fair to say" the organization would spend "substantial" resources attacking 10th District congressional challenger Dan Seals up until Election Day. Today, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza defined "substantial":

In the past 10 days, Freedom's Watch has dropped more than $1.6 million on ads in six House races and two Senate contests. That spending comes after the group spent less than $40,000 on television ads between May and September, raising questions in many circles about whether the group would be a major factor in the fall election. [...]

Freedom's Watch spending
Colorado Senate: $659,212
Oregon Senate: $366,033
Alabama's 2nd district: $52,374
Illinois' 10th district: $155,298
Nevada's 3rd district: $115,510
New Jersey's 3rd district: $23,690
New Jersey's 7th district: $124,885
New Mexico's 1st district: $155,903

Keeping GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in office appears to be a top-priority of the neo-cons.

DCCC Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Seven In August

This afternoon, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released the results of a poll they conducted in mid-August, showing Democratic challenger Dan Seals trailing GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by seven points. This survey provides some contrast to the poll put out by the Kirk campaign last week --  conducted Sept. 10-11, with a 5.6 percent margin-of-error -- showing him with a commanding 22-point lead. 

From the DCCC release:

A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 17-19 of 400 likely voters with a 4.9% margin of error shows Dan Seals within striking distance of Congressman Mark Kirk 39%-46% with 14% undecided. After voters are informed with each candidates’ message and bio, Dan Seals comes out ahead 45%-40%.

Continue reading »

About That Kirk-Seals Poll

Yesterday, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's campaign released an internal poll showing him with a significant lead over Democratic challenger Dan Seals.  Here are the head-to-head results:

Dan Seals (D): 29%
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51%
Undecided: 21%

Today, the Swing State Project provides some much needed context:

On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted

Dan Seals' New Ad: "Just Say No"

In addition to the two Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ads released in Illinois last week, 10th District Democratic challanger Dan Seals also put out a new TV spot hitting GOP Rep. Mark Kirk.  In the ad, Seals highlights Kirk's record of supporting President Bush and says, "Sometimes you just have to have the courage to say no."  Watch it:

Flashback: Kirk Made Only $7K The First Year He Ran For Congress

In an interview published yesterday, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, in Politico's words, "leveled some harsh, personal attacks against [Democratic challenger Dan] Seals, calling him an unemployed carpetbagger who wants to raise voters’ taxes." 

Here's an excerpt:

“He [Seals] didn’t move into the district and has some résumé issues. He has no steady job. He made $5,000 in income this year. He has made a number of missteps,” Kirk said. ”One of the things my opponent wants to do is raise the capital gains tax. You don’t have to explain a capital gains tax cut in my district. They can spell it out to you in spades, what it has done for their family.”

This isn't the first time Kirk or his campaign have attempted to paint Seals as an unemployed freeloader.  But rather than get into the fairness of this characterization, I'll instead explain why it's just blatantly hypocritical.

Continue reading »

Seals Airs First TV Ad

Yesterday evening, prior to Barack Obama's acceptance of the Democratic presidential nomination, 10th District Congressional candidate Dan Seals aired his first television ad on local TV.  Watch it:

In a private meeting with district Republicans earlier this year, incumbent GOP Rep. Mark Kirk accused Seals of supporting the "Obama agenda," as Archpundit documented at the time.  In stump speeches and appearances this campaign year, Seals has repeatedly cited that comment and said he wears it as a badge of honor.

Kirk Tries To Paint Seals As A Freeloader

We know GOP Rep. Mark Kirk doesn't have much sympathy for the unemployed. But now he's trying to count Democratic opponent Dan Seals as a member of that population. From a Roll Call article published Monday:

“After losing his bid for Congress, Seals did not return to GE Finance and was unemployed,” according to a Kirk campaign memo out last week. “Near the end of the 2006 campaign, Seals paid himself $25,000 out of his campaign donor funds — an act that is legal but strongly discouraging to donors ... in May, Seals filed his 2008 financial disclosure with the U.S. House showing only $3,300 in earned income through the first quarter of the year.”

It's an odd criticism, especially considering that most candidates for Congress take leaves of absence from work to focus on hotly-contested campaigns. Archpundit agrees:

One of the most bizarre argument by the Frank Burns of the Blogosphere and Kirk is that a candidate should be employed full time while running -- which is convenient if you are an incumbent who is paid by the constituents, can mail to constituents with franking, can use your position to get your name out there, and generally have every advantage of incumbency.

But leave it to Kirk to mislead constituents. As the Seals campaign points out in the Roll Call piece, the suggestion that Seals is unemployed isn't even true:

“Mark Kirk entirely overlooks the fact that Dan Seals has worked as a business consultant and lecturer at Northwestern since 2006 and that Seals’ wife serves in a senior level corporate position,” the Seals campaign memo states. “So the question is, what does Mark Kirk find so objectionable that the Seals family, like many families in the 10th district have two working parents?”

Not convinced? Rob at Illinois Reason reminds us that we can look to the local conservative blogosphere for more proof.

Continue reading »