Progress Illinois

CBS 2's Mike Flannery sorted through the speculation about Obama's U.S. Senate replacement last night and offered up some interesting -- and unsourced -- developments.  According to Flannery, the top three names on Gov. Blagojevich's shortlist are Tammy Duckworth, Emil Jones, and Rep. Luis Gutierrez.  He further reported that former 10th District congressional candidate Dan Seals is perhaps being considered and that sources "all but rule out Jesse Jackson Jr." as a potential pick.  Finally, Attorney General Lisa Madigan distanced herself from the process.  Watch it:

Meanwhile, Sen. Dick Durbin indicated yesterday that he's hoping to meet with Blagojevich to discuss the matter today:

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GOP Rep. Mark Kirk -- who hasn't released an internal poll since mid-September -- asserted yesterday that polls have shown him running "five to ten points ahead of my opponent the whole way through."  From CBS 2's report on the 10th Congressional District race:

The whole way through, huh?

We've been wondering whether Barack Obama was going to wade into the tight 10th Congressional District race.  And today we got our answer. 

Take a listen to Dan Seals' new radio ad:

Internal mp3

On October 21, Democratic candidate Dan Seals' congressional campaign dropped off 8,200 pieces of mail at the post office.  As is customary with political materials, the campaign had sleeved and red-tagged the delivery, which was subsequently transferred to a distribution facility in Palatine.  About a week later, they realized that the mail hadn't hit any mailboxes in the 10th District and made repeated calls to the post office.  On Wednesday, October 29, they learned what had happened.  From an email sent to Seals supporters today:

After realizing that supporters had not received the letter, we discovered that the mail had been set aside and out of sight at the post office. The letters were supposed to have been treated as first class mail. They were not.

Very strange. The sleeves and red tags had also been removed, according to the campaign. 

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In the first 15 days of October, Democratic challenger Dan Seals outpaced GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in fundraising by more than $100,000.  According to his "pre-general" Federal Election Commission filing, Seals raised $233,000 during this brief period, retaining $269,000 cash-on-hand. Meanwhile, Kirk raised $127,000 and was left with $885,000 cash-on-hand. 

Seals is also benefiting from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's huge, last-minute advertising buy in the district. The Swing State Project recently reported that, on October 28, the DCCC dropped $957,000 on the race.

From the Des Plaines Journal's endorsement of 10th Congressional District Democratic challenger Dan Seals:

During the grueling contest, the usually moderate and thoughtful [GOP Rep. Mark] Kirk has resorted to negative advertising to get his message out. He has also limited his availability to the public, we guess, having made the decision to rely on TV ads and mailings. This oftentimes happens when an incumbent fears that he might not be reelected. If Kirk is not engaged and responsive to his community while campaigning, it is unlikely he would do so while in office. If Seals becomes the next congressman, he would do well to remember that lesson.

The Journal endorsed Democratic challenger Jill Morgenthaler in the 6th District, citing "her fresh approach, sound, cool judgment, and worldly experience." 

Other endorsements of note this week: the SouthtownStar backed Democrat Debbie Halvorson in the 11th District and the Sun-Times voiced support for Republican incumbent Judy Biggert in the 13th.  We've updated our endorsement round-up accordingly.

In a poll commissioned by Daily Kos and conducted October 20-22, Research 2000 found 10th District Democratic challenger Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by six points, 49-43 percent.  From Markos' write-up:

Last time we polled this race, the Kirk campaign absolutely freaked out, accusing us of being anti-semitic because we (admittedly) polled during Rosh Hashanah in one of the most Jewish districts in the country. Their argument was that it was our dastardly evil plot to disenfranchise Jews, which was weird since Jewish voters are some of the most loyal Democrats in the country. Our theory was that we had undercounted Seals support in that first poll because of its timing, but Kirk saw it differently.

Hilariously, a few days after our poll, SUSA came up with their own, and that one had SEALS up 52-44. Suddenly, the Kirk campaign loved our poll, and used it to push back against the SUSA one which, unfortunately for Kirk, wasn't conducted during a high holy Jewish holiday.

Neither was this one. So what has changed? Undecided voters. Seals went from 70-12 among Democrats to 83-10.

In this new video hitting GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, YouTube user "hsprings44" makes a great catch.  At the 10th Congressional District debate on Sunday, Kirk ended his closing statement this way: "I have sought to fight for this district from one end to the other. Send the reformer with results back to Washington."

If that title -- "a reformer with results" -- sounds familiar, it's because George W. Bush used it in his 2000 primary campaign.  From a February 10, 2000, Salon.com article:

On Monday, Bush revealed a new slogan, one designed to wrest away McCain's maverick mantle -- "A Reformer With Results" the white-on-blue banners proclaim. 

Perhaps Kirk has hired Karen Hughes to see his campaign through to the finish line ...

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Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Progress Illinois. 10/15-16.  Likely voters. MoE 4.9%:

Dan Seals (D): 41%
Mark Kirk (R): 47%
Undecided: 12%

In the middle of last week, the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington conducted the above survey for Progress Illinois in the 10th Congressional District.  The results are very similar to the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted two weeks earlier, which also found Democratic challenger Dan Seals down by six points (44-38%). 

That both GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's support and job approval fell under 50 percent is good news for Seals. He remains within striking distance and a big boost in Democratic turnout on Election Day could make all the difference.  As we've reported, both SEIU and the Illinois Coalition for Refugee Rights have been doing a great deal of work in the district to register and turn out Democratic-leaning voters.  Meanwhile, there still appear to be a considerable number of undecided Democrats and Independents up for grabs.

Seals' recent barrage of television advertising seems to have boosted his name-ID in the district.  While 29 percent of respondents didn't recognize him in the Daily Kos poll, that figure was 16 percent in our survey.

The poll found that over a third of respondents were unaware of the constitutional convention question on this year's ballot.  Of those who were aware, 21 percent favored holding a Con-Con and 45 percent opposed the idea. Furthermore, we found that Gov. Rod Blagojevich has a 10 percent favorability rating in the district.

More detail below.

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GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is all in a tizzy about the newest TV ad coming from Democrat challenger Dan Seals' camp. The video features Caleb Davis -- an Iraq vet from Peoria -- making the case that the incumbent Republican sent troops to war irresponsibly and didn't care for them when they returned from battle. Watch it here:

Rather than take on the message of the ad -- which he can't be too thrilled about -- Kirk has opted to go after the messenger, highlighting a Peoria Journal Star report that Davis wore a black T-shirt proclaiming "Investigate 9/11@911truth.org" to an event at a Peoria library.

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