Progress Illinois

A new video from the Dan Hynes campaign has been making the rounds online today. It splices together some footage from yesterday's Campaign for Better Health Care forum in which Gov. Pat Quinn appears a bit tired and distracted as Illinois resident Midge Hough recalls the tragic story of her 24-year-old daughter-in-law's death. The video ends with the tagline: "Illinois can't afford a governor who is asleep at the wheel."  Watch it:

This afternoon, the Quinn campaign responded quickly with some footage of their own.  It shows the governor talking one-on-one with Hough following the event.  He can be seen giving her his card and telling her, "I know this is the cause of your life," adding, "I want to help tell Jenny's story."  Watch it:

In a release accompanying the video, the Quinn campaign accused the Hynes campaign of "deceptive" editing and further stated:

We all commend Midge Hough for her extraordinary courage and her indomitable belief that this personal tragedy may ultimately serve to help millions of other people, like Jenny and her baby, who still do not have health care coverage.

Yesterday afternoon, as part of the Campaign for a Better Health Care's annual conference, Gov. Pat Quinn and Democratic primary challenger Dan Hynes engaged in an hour-long debate on health care reform. Because it costs the state money to provide coverage to the poor and to protect public health, the debate routinely veered into discussion about the state deficit and the gubernatorial candidates' competing tax reform proposals. When it did, things got snippy. Watch this compilation:

Notice how neither candidate even broaches the most important aspect of this debate: how they plan to convince the legislature to go along with their respective proposals next year. In a sense, this debate is taking place solely in the abstract.

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It's a little under three months until the February 2 primary, but the Democratic gubernatorial battle has already been chock full of negative attacks.  The most recent round started late last week.  Check out our play-by-play below:

Friday, October 30
Comptroller Dan Hynes released yet another ad whacking Quinn for the income tax hikes included in his original budget proposal:

For the second time, the Hynes team uses a clip from Quinn's April interview with the Rockford Register-Star editorial board.  One important aside: Quinn clearly stated elsewhere in the discussion that he "thinks we should have a graduated income tax" -- the type of structure now being proposed by Hynes -- but also pointed out that such a policy would require amending the constitution.  Due to those limitations, he told the board that he would instead attempt "to find a progressive way to raise revenue."  An examination of Quinn's actions during the budget process shows that this is exactly what he attempted to do while also trying to reach some form of compromise with the tax-wary General Assembly.

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The latest from the 2010 electoral landscape in Illinois ...

IL GOVERNOR

As we watched him roll out campaign ads and accept high-profile endorsements in recent months, we forgot that Gov. Pat Quinn never actually held an official launch for his 2010 campaign.  Today, he's doing just that with a kick-off event in Chicago, followed by announcement stops in eight other Illinois cities: Springfield, Cahokia, Herrin, West Frankfort, Mt. Vernon, Salem, Mattoon, and Tuscola.  We'll have some photos from the Chicago event later today.

Quinn's launch coincides with his release of his economic plan, titled "Jobs and Growth for Illinois."  Here are the five priorities laid out under this plan:

1) Rebuilding the state’s foundations by investing in public works and 21st-century communications systems.

2) Investing in clean energy to create jobs today and sustainable energy resources for our future.

3) Protecting and increasing the state’s investment in our human capital through education. 

4) Encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation through strategic use of state investment to provide start-up capital.

5) Expanding the state economy by bringing Illinois to the world.

You can find more detail on each priority here.

Meanwhile, if you haven't seen challenger Dan Hynes' latest ad -- this one 100 percent positive -- you can view it below:

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Though you wouldn't know it from their recent back-and-forth on the airwaves, when it comes to the need for fundamental tax reform in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn and Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes actually agree more than they disagree. Both understand that the state has borrowed far too much. Both realize that our inefficient and unfair tax system places a disproportionate burden on poor and working people and generates far too little revenue to cover core services and debt obligations. And they've both put forward competing proposals that, while far from ideal, would improve the state's fiscal strength and the lives of Illinois residents. (In his first budget proposal, Quinn sought to increase the state's 3 percent income tax rate to 4.5 percent and offset the impact by hiking the personal exemptions from $2,000 to $6,000; Hynes has proposed amending the constitution to just raise the income tax on those making more than $200,000.)  The question voters really need to focus on is which candidate can more effectively usher their plan through the state legislature.

A DC-based think tank says Illinoisans shouldn't have to choose. In a new paper (PDF) released this week, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) argues that the best policy approach would be to combine the two proposals.

In theory, it's an interesting and balanced idea. But as Capitol Fax noted yesterday, it's likely unrealistic considering the current political climate. Furthermore, Quinn's original proposal has no real support at this point. When he introduced it early last year, it represented a political non-starter for every major constituency in Springfield. Even Quinn's modified, temporary plan failed to generate sufficient support in the House. So why would lawmakers return to it now?

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The latest from the Illinois electoral landscape ...

IL GOVERNOR

A poll released by the Paul Simon Institute on Public Policy late last week showed Gov. Pat Quinn with a sizeable lead over comptroller and Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes:

Quinn:  33.9%
Hynes: 16.5%
Someone else: 14.2%
Don't know/No answer: 35.4%
MOE +/- 5/4%

Since our last 2010 round-up, this race has also seen its share of additional endorsements.  A week ago, Quinn accepted the backing of Rep. Phil Hare, who said that the "Illinois Congressional delegation finally has a partner inSpringfield, instead of a punch line."  Watch a video put together by the campaign: 

Today, Quinn is scheduled to receive the endorsement of the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150. Last week, that same union's state council announced their support for challenger Dan Hynes, who also received the endorsement of the sheet metal workers union.

IL SENATE

In the nation's Capitol last week, reporters spotted Alexi Giannoulias leaving the White House where he told them he'd been huddling with senior adviser David Axelrod to discuss the Democratic Senate primary. At this point, Giannoulias is leading in the polls and in the fundraising race, but doubts remain about his viability among the Democratic establishment in D.C. Yesterday, the Washington Post reported on that dynamic:

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With gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes releasing his second negative ad against Gov. Pat Quinn yesterday, the contours of the looming debate between these two candidates is becoming clear.  Watch his latest spot:

As he has done in both his ads, Hynes is going to try to out-populist the populist Quinn by slamming the tax plans the governor supported last spring as putting too much of a burden on the "middle class."  He will constantly contrast those proposals with his new plan, which would only raise taxes on those making more than $200,000 (but requires amending the state constitution).  

Meanwhile, Quinn is going to emphasize that his initial budget -- which never attracted much support among lawmakers -- would have shielded many middle-class and low-income Illinoisans from the effects of his proposed tax increase, even cutting some of their bills.  It was the General Assembly's intransigence, he will argue, that led him to eventually support other plans that provided less tax relief.

But this debate isn't really about who has the best, most humane plan to raise revenue and balance the state budget deficit.  Objectively speaking, both proposals have their merits.  The real question is: Which of these candidates can actually convince the legislature to go along?

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On Sunday, Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes released the following web ad that hits Gov. Pat Quinn for "refus[ing] to propose a real progressive income tax in Illinois."  The spot is meant to highlight Hynes' alternative plan, which seeks to amend the state constitution to raise income taxes only on those making more than $200,000 (we currently have a constitutionally-mandated flat rate). Watch it (via Capitol Fax):

You'll notice that halfway through the spot, the Hynes campaign uses an extremely brief clip from Quinn's appearance before the Rockford Register Star's editorial board in April.  You can hear one of the board members pointing out that, under his initial budget plan, every Illinois single person or couple with only one child would see their taxes rise.  Quinn is seen nodding before the clip ends.  

That ten-second clip came from an hour-long interview, which you can view in full here.  It's not surprising that the Hynes camp would selectively use the footage of his "nod" for their own narrow purposes.  It's no different really than Quinn's use of a six-year-old Kane County Chronicle article on Hynes' opposition at the time to a progressive income tax.  But Quinn's full response is actually worth watching as a reminder of his mindset going into the budget negotiations last spring.  Indeed, the governor went on to tell the board that he "thinks we should have a graduated income tax," but added that, "I have to, within the parameters of the constitution of Illinois, try to find a progressive way to raise revenue."  Watch it:

As Hynes whacks Quinn for failing to consider a progressive income tax, it's important to remember that no one -- not the most progressive lawmakers, not the most left-leaning advocates, and certainly not Hynes -- were pushing such a graduated tax structure as a solution to the state's budget woes last spring.  It simply wasn't on the table.

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Last week, Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes launched his first TV ad, a spot that contrasted his tax plan with that put forth earlier this year by Gov. Pat Quinn.  As we noted, Hynes' piece included the false claim that Quinn supported a "50 percent tax increase on every Illinois family."  In fact, the governor's original plan and the subsequent versions that he later supported all included varying forms of relief for low-earners. 

Over the weekend, the Quinn campaign released their own ad in response. Watch it here. (We'd embed it, but our YouTube functionality isn't working properly at the moment.)

Yesterday, Capitol Fax's Rich Miller responded that Quinn's ad is "more than a little misleading."  His explanation:

The “truth” is that Gov. Quinn did, indeed, propose income tax cuts for certain families. Quinn then abandoned that plan, flip-flopped around for a while and finally ended up supporting an income tax hike at the end of the session which cut nobody’s income taxes.

So, Quinn simply isn’t being totally honest here. Par for the course in a campaign ad, and exactly the “same old political game” that the governor rails against in his spot.

It's true that as the situation grew increasingly desperate in Springfield last May, Quinn eventually backed away from his original plan and attempted to throw his weight behind a variety of other proposals (some of which simply shielded low-earners from the tax increase, rather than cutting their taxes).  Indeed, over the course of the spring and summer, we repeatedly criticized the governor for strategic mistakes along the way. 

Nonetheless, the facts are these: Quinn attempted to build some progressivity into the state's regressive tax structure, the legislature opposed those efforts, and he unfortunately had no choice but to seek out further compromises.

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As expected, state comptroller and Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes went up on the air yesterday with the first campaign ad of the season. In the spot, which you can view here, he repeats his oversimplified description of Gov. Pat Quinn's tax plan from last year (calling it a "50 percent tax increase on every Illinois family") and asserts that his alternative plan is a "better" option:

As we've said before, Hynes' budget proposal -- which hinges on amending the constitution next November to allow for a graduated tax rate -- is worthy of discussion.  But his ongoing characterization of Quinn's plan as a tax increase on "every Illinois family" is downright dishonest and ignores that he coupled his plan to raise the income tax rate from 3 percent to 4.5 percent with a provision that would have tripled the personal exemption (which currently stands at $2,000).  The Quinn campaign explains in their response to the ad:

Governor Quinn proposed a tax reform plan in his March 18 budget speech that would have provided immediate tax relief for Illinois households at the lower tax brackets while raising rates for taxpayers with higher incomes. Under Governor Quinn’s plan, 5 million Illinois taxpayers would have seen their income tax bills stay flat or decrease. “It is unfortunate that, in these difficult economic times, the Comptroller is trying to deceive Illinois voters by giving a false impression of my record,” Governor Quinn said.  

Unfortunately, the Tribune article on Hynes' ad includes the Quinn quote but doesn't tell readers what is actually deceitful about the ad:

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