Progress Illinois

Yesterday afternoon, as part of the Campaign for a Better Health Care's annual conference, Gov. Pat Quinn and Democratic primary challenger Dan Hynes engaged in an hour-long debate on health care reform. Because it costs the state money to provide coverage to the poor and to protect public health, the debate routinely veered into discussion about the state deficit and the gubernatorial candidates' competing tax reform proposals. When it did, things got snippy. Watch this compilation:

Notice how neither candidate even broaches the most important aspect of this debate: how they plan to convince the legislature to go along with their respective proposals next year. In a sense, this debate is taking place solely in the abstract.

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Lots of new campaign advertisements and web videos out in the past few days.  Here's a rundown ...

Gov. Pat Quinn has a new ad out, titled "Finally," which hit the airwaves yesterday, according to Capitol Fax:

After yesterday's fiery debate in Rockford, the Quinn campaign also released this clip from the governor's remarks (under the title: "Quinn wins at Rockford Forum"):

You can read the Hynes campaign's take on the debate here.

In the 10th Congressional District primary, Julie Hamos is airing a new biographical spot on the cable airwaves:

U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias also has a new web ad up today, highlighting how the treasurer's Employ Illinois program helped a Springfield child care center create jobs:

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If he's to survive the rough-and-tumble Republican gubernatorial primary, State Sen. Kirk Dillard is going to have to appease his party's conservative base. That includes providing justification for his appearance in the first biographical television ad produced by then-Presidential candidate Barack Obama. "Sen. Obama worked on some of the deepest issues we had, and he was successful in a bipartisan way,” the Hinsdale lawmaker said in the ad. “His negotiation skills and an ability to understand both sides would serve the country very well.”

At a "tea party forum" in Homer Glen Wednesday night, one attendee wanted to know if Dillard still believed that his former colleague was "serving the country well." Dillard quickly said no before launching into a revisionist attack on the president, claiming that he doesn't like the "socialistic policies" that are being implemented in Washington and that he "warned people back then that [Obama] was a socialist." Watch it:

DILLARD: I disagree with Barack Obama on about 95 percent of what he stands for or is. One of the reasons I'm here tonight is I don't like those socialistic policies and I warned people back then that he was a socialist and took him on on socialized medicine on the floor of the Illinois State Senate.

This clip raises a few questions.

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It's no secret that Illinois conservatives hate the Democrats' cap-and-trade legislation with a passion. Indeed, their intense opposition is likely what led U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kirk to backtrack from his earlier support for the House climate bill. So it's not surprising that the Republicans running for governor in Illinois would express reservations about the proposal in front of a packed "tea party forum" in Homer Glen last night.

But the GOP candidates didn't simply criticize cap-and-trade as the wrong way to address climate change -- four of them denied that humans have even contributed to global warming.

When asked whether they believe "climate change is caused by human activities," State Sens. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) and Bill Brady (R-Bloomington), DuPage County Board Chair Bob Schillerstrom, and commentator Dan Proft responded by rejecting that premise. Watch thevideo (pardon the shaky camera work):

Apparently Proft thinks that the 2,500 scientists and other climate experts who make up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) qualify as "enviro-terrorists."

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It's a little under three months until the February 2 primary, but the Democratic gubernatorial battle has already been chock full of negative attacks.  The most recent round started late last week.  Check out our play-by-play below:

Friday, October 30
Comptroller Dan Hynes released yet another ad whacking Quinn for the income tax hikes included in his original budget proposal:

For the second time, the Hynes team uses a clip from Quinn's April interview with the Rockford Register-Star editorial board.  One important aside: Quinn clearly stated elsewhere in the discussion that he "thinks we should have a graduated income tax" -- the type of structure now being proposed by Hynes -- but also pointed out that such a policy would require amending the constitution.  Due to those limitations, he told the board that he would instead attempt "to find a progressive way to raise revenue."  An examination of Quinn's actions during the budget process shows that this is exactly what he attempted to do while also trying to reach some form of compromise with the tax-wary General Assembly.

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The latest from the 2010 electoral landscape in Illinois ...

IL GOVERNOR

As we watched him roll out campaign ads and accept high-profile endorsements in recent months, we forgot that Gov. Pat Quinn never actually held an official launch for his 2010 campaign.  Today, he's doing just that with a kick-off event in Chicago, followed by announcement stops in eight other Illinois cities: Springfield, Cahokia, Herrin, West Frankfort, Mt. Vernon, Salem, Mattoon, and Tuscola.  We'll have some photos from the Chicago event later today.

Quinn's launch coincides with his release of his economic plan, titled "Jobs and Growth for Illinois."  Here are the five priorities laid out under this plan:

1) Rebuilding the state’s foundations by investing in public works and 21st-century communications systems.

2) Investing in clean energy to create jobs today and sustainable energy resources for our future.

3) Protecting and increasing the state’s investment in our human capital through education. 

4) Encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation through strategic use of state investment to provide start-up capital.

5) Expanding the state economy by bringing Illinois to the world.

You can find more detail on each priority here.

Meanwhile, if you haven't seen challenger Dan Hynes' latest ad -- this one 100 percent positive -- you can view it below:

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Though you wouldn't know it from their recent back-and-forth on the airwaves, when it comes to the need for fundamental tax reform in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn and Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes actually agree more than they disagree. Both understand that the state has borrowed far too much. Both realize that our inefficient and unfair tax system places a disproportionate burden on poor and working people and generates far too little revenue to cover core services and debt obligations. And they've both put forward competing proposals that, while far from ideal, would improve the state's fiscal strength and the lives of Illinois residents. (In his first budget proposal, Quinn sought to increase the state's 3 percent income tax rate to 4.5 percent and offset the impact by hiking the personal exemptions from $2,000 to $6,000; Hynes has proposed amending the constitution to just raise the income tax on those making more than $200,000.)  The question voters really need to focus on is which candidate can more effectively usher their plan through the state legislature.

A DC-based think tank says Illinoisans shouldn't have to choose. In a new paper (PDF) released this week, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) argues that the best policy approach would be to combine the two proposals.

In theory, it's an interesting and balanced idea. But as Capitol Fax noted yesterday, it's likely unrealistic considering the current political climate. Furthermore, Quinn's original proposal has no real support at this point. When he introduced it early last year, it represented a political non-starter for every major constituency in Springfield. Even Quinn's modified, temporary plan failed to generate sufficient support in the House. So why would lawmakers return to it now?

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Bob Schillerstrom is the Dupage County Board chairman and a Republican candidate for governor.  And as he explains (in truly bizarre fashion) in the ads below, he opposes new taxes and wants to stop state spending:

Wow. Those are some of the oddest campaign commercials I've ever seen.  I'm not sure if they're going to actually air on the air or just the web, but I can imagine them confusing the heck out of the half-listening TV viewer.

Just for fun, here's another one of the ads on his YouTube channel, which is apparently a spoof of the Dos Equis "Most Interesting Man In The World" ads: 

(H/T Mechanics)

The latest from the Illinois electoral landscape ...

IL GOVERNOR

A poll released by the Paul Simon Institute on Public Policy late last week showed Gov. Pat Quinn with a sizeable lead over comptroller and Democratic gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes:

Quinn:  33.9%
Hynes: 16.5%
Someone else: 14.2%
Don't know/No answer: 35.4%
MOE +/- 5/4%

Since our last 2010 round-up, this race has also seen its share of additional endorsements.  A week ago, Quinn accepted the backing of Rep. Phil Hare, who said that the "Illinois Congressional delegation finally has a partner inSpringfield, instead of a punch line."  Watch a video put together by the campaign: 

Today, Quinn is scheduled to receive the endorsement of the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150. Last week, that same union's state council announced their support for challenger Dan Hynes, who also received the endorsement of the sheet metal workers union.

IL SENATE

In the nation's Capitol last week, reporters spotted Alexi Giannoulias leaving the White House where he told them he'd been huddling with senior adviser David Axelrod to discuss the Democratic Senate primary. At this point, Giannoulias is leading in the polls and in the fundraising race, but doubts remain about his viability among the Democratic establishment in D.C. Yesterday, the Washington Post reported on that dynamic:

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With gubernatorial challenger Dan Hynes releasing his second negative ad against Gov. Pat Quinn yesterday, the contours of the looming debate between these two candidates is becoming clear.  Watch his latest spot:

As he has done in both his ads, Hynes is going to try to out-populist the populist Quinn by slamming the tax plans the governor supported last spring as putting too much of a burden on the "middle class."  He will constantly contrast those proposals with his new plan, which would only raise taxes on those making more than $200,000 (but requires amending the state constitution).  

Meanwhile, Quinn is going to emphasize that his initial budget -- which never attracted much support among lawmakers -- would have shielded many middle-class and low-income Illinoisans from the effects of his proposed tax increase, even cutting some of their bills.  It was the General Assembly's intransigence, he will argue, that led him to eventually support other plans that provided less tax relief.

But this debate isn't really about who has the best, most humane plan to raise revenue and balance the state budget deficit.  Objectively speaking, both proposals have their merits.  The real question is: Which of these candidates can actually convince the legislature to go along?

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