Progress Illinois

Next Tuesday is the anniversary of the historic election of President Barack Obama and a memorable evening that many of us spent in Grant Park after the polls closed. Just how hard we are going to have to work to win that “Change” we fought for is now clear, and it is time to recommit to each other and to redouble our efforts. 

I happened to be standing next to Rahm Emanuel as Barack Obama gave his acceptance speech in Grant Park that night. I have known Rahm many years and we have never been particularly close. But I put my hand on his shoulder and said, “Do us proud.” He joked back, “Nah…. I think we will just go f*** it up!” More seriously I said, “We desperately need legalization for the 12 million undocumented.” Rahm replied, “It all depends on the votes.”

Now it is a year later and we are engaged in a bitter power struggle to win meaningful health care reform. In many ways the undocumented ended up being made the bogeymen of this debate (along with ACORN) by the Republicans, and got thrown under the bus by many Democrats. Meanwhile deportations have increased under the Obama administration, and it is unclear whether the political will to move forward on immigration reform will exist after the exhausting health care battle subsides.

How should we deal at this point with disappointments from this White House? And how do we continue to press towards the “Change” we've been fighting for?

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Barack Obama’s first trip to Mexico this week will not be spent enjoying the famous Mexican surf and sun. He and Mexican President Felipe Calderon have a series of difficult issues they must address. Following Calderon's crackdown on the Mexican narcotics cartels, violence has surged in the country. Trade skirmishes have broken out between the U.S. and Mexico. And then there are the thorny issues along our 2,000-mile contiguous border, with drugs and immigrants moving north and rivers of guns flowing south. It's safe to say there will be no time for snorkeling.

The president is facing some mighty tough issues on this trip and last week he demonstrated that he actually is “Chicago-tough." The White House made headlines when it reiterated that Obama is serious about addressing our broken immigration system during his first year in office, including an earned path to citizenship for the undocumented. 

Pundits marveled that even our Blackberry-addicted, multi-tasking president would try to take on this divisive issue so early in his first term and during a recession. But there are some very good reasons to act on immigration reform this year.  Hopefully, he and Calderon will discuss the shared stake our nations have in pursuing real immigration solutions.

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Most of my friends and colleagues think of me as a fiery activist for immigrant rights. Indeed, I spend as much time as I can organizing and enjoying good demonstrations. But I'd like to confess that I have a secret, quiet quirk.

I love demographers. Doug Massey of Princeton; Audrey Singer of Brookings; Dowell Myers of the University of Southern California; and Chicago’s own Rob Paral of Notre Dame: Superstars and heroes, one and all!

This is not a quirk shared by many, however. The Illinois Republican Party, for one, has failed to get in touch with its inner demographer and this has meant deep pain at the polling place.

I know that demographers are an understated, tweedy sort of crew, and I doubt one will ever make the cover of Rolling Stone. But I've discovered that they have a wondrous ability to shine a light on the future.

On Thursday, May 1, most of the television crews in the country were out filming the latest immigration marches. I was there myself, enjoying the great parade and speaking to the crowds. But that day, on the inner folds of the nation’s newspapers, demographers were using their numbers to paint a picture of what's to come.

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On March 8, Democrat and scientist Bill Foster shocked the political world by beating Republican dairy and investment millionaire Jim Oberweis in the special election in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District. This is a case where the Democratic candidate, the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) finally “got it right” on immigration.

Faced with an aggressive, divisive attack by the harshly anti-immigrant Oberweis, Foster presented a positive, nuanced, and humane approach to the issue. At the same time, the DCCC aggressively targeted Oberweis for his hypocrisy on immigration. The combination of a solution-oriented approach by Foster and a hard-hitting offense by national Democrats neutralized the Republican attack’s potential effect on mainstream voters without alienating Latino voters.

This is a road map for future Democratic victories in swing districts where immigration will be an issue.

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