Several weeks ago, I published an article here at Progress Illinois that used a regression model developed by the anonymous blogger "Poblano" to examine how increased youth and minority turnout could affect Barack Obama's chances in the general election this November.
Poblano had launched the website FiveThirtyEight about two months earlier and had quickly begun making a "name" for himself among various election watchers. Many were impressed with the depth of the data presented on the site and the complexity of his analysis. But when he used his model to predict the results of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, pollsters and analysts really began to take notice.
Last Friday, in a brief blog post titled "No, I'm Not Chuck Todd," Poblano unmasked himself as Nate Silver, a 30-year-old Chicagoan and managing editor of Baseball Prospectus.
What's fascinating about Silver is that FiveThirtyEight is not his first renowned statistical creation. He is also well-known in baseball circles for having developed PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), a projection model that does a remarkable job predicting how specific teams and players will perform in a given season. As The Chicago Reader's Michael Miner recounted earlier this year, "Silver’s system named six of the eight [2007] playoff teams, and it had a seventh, Cleveland, finishing a game out of first. PECOTA called the NL Central for the Cubs with an 86-76 record. They won it at 85-77."
Now that he's out from under his pseudonym, we're going to be seeing a lot more of Silver's commentary. For instance, he has a column today in The New York Post (and not in the sports pages). He also plans to contribute ongoing election analysis to The Guardian. I interviewed him yesterday to get a sense of why he decided to reveal his identity, how he finds the time to manage these two statistical juggernauts, and what happens to FiveThirtyEight on November 3.
The Man Behind The Math: An Interview With Nate Silver (aka "Poblano")
by Josh Kalven on June 02, 2008 - 2:45pm
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Is Con-Con The Answer?: Progressives Mull A Constitutional Convention
by Adam Doster on May 30, 2008 - 10:46am
If Illinois voters can agree on one thing, it’s that lawmakers in Springfield aren’t as effective as they could be. Take a survey of 2,301 registered voters conducted in mid-May by the automated polling outfit Ask Illinois. When prompted to identify “who would do a better job running our state," former governor George Ryan, now imprisoned on federal corruption charges, outdistanced Governor Rod Blagojevich by four percentage points. Not to be ignored, the General Assembly -- distrustful of the governor and consumed by their own intra-party squabbles -- often fails to deliver timely progressive solutions favored by Illinoisans. Last summer’s budget fiasco is a prime example.
But the ill will towards many of our state leaders begs a crucial question: Is the gridlock in Springfield a result of flawed leadership or structural deficiencies in the Constitution? That’s the fundamental issue voters will answer this November, when the possibility of rewriting the state's governing document through a Constitutional Convention (known colloquially as Con-Con) will be placed on the ballot. Whether a convention provides the best vehicle for progressive reforms is unclear, but the pros and cons deserve serious scrutiny before voters head to the polls.
An Interview With Scott Harper
by Mose Buchele on May 25, 2008 - 6:19pm
When I recently visited Democrat Scott Harper’s Naperville campaign headquarters the place was full of activity. Volunteers lined a table in the middle of the office stuffing envelopes. Staffers typed intently or made calls from their desks. It was a Thursday morning, five and a half months before Election Day, but the atmosphere was charged and the group was focused. This fact alone should give Illinois Republicans pause.
Harper is running to represent the 13th Congressional District, which has long been a GOP stronghold. Once represented by none other than former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the seat is currently held by five-term Republican Judy Biggert.
But the tide might be turning. Democrat Bill Foster's upset victory in the neighboring 14th District, along with a national and local trend to the left, has many people predicting that Harper can defeat Biggert. Early indicators are hopeful. The campaign boasted record-breaking fundraising numbers in their first quarter, and the district has been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) list of targeted seats in November. Adding to this momentum is Harper’s contention that he will fight harder than any of the district's previous Democratic candidates to ensure his message is heard.
A native son of the 13th, Harper has traveled the world during the course of his career. A successful business owner and entrepreneur, he is also an aspiring scholar in the field of social ethics.
To give our readers a better understanding of the first-time candidate, I sat down with Harper to learn more about the Democratic reawakening in the collar counties, his growing volunteer force, and why the DCCC is focusing on the race. We also discussed a variety of policy matters including Iraq, the importance of electricity in any national energy policy, and how his experience with manufacturing helped shape his economic views.
Young Progressives Barnstorm The Prairie State
by Adam Doster on May 15, 2008 - 10:42am
As a 25-year old running for an Illinois House seat, he wasn’t supposed to have a chance. Fresh out of the Army, he was facing two top Democratic incumbents backed by the state party. All he had on his resume was a few years as editor of a diminutive weekly newspaper, one with a muckraking reputation and a small circulation.
Yet the long odds didn’t intimidate him. With the help of his brother, he corralled a horde of campaign volunteers. He got assurances from local committeemen that if he canvassed their entire precincts, they would endorse him. He even turned down cash from the corrupt statewide organization -- much of which was distributed courtesy of big-time gamblers -- in favor of small contributions of less than $100. Then he walked every square inch of that district, talking to voters and listening to their concerns. In the end, it paid off; he outdistanced both candidates by almost 10,000 votes, becoming one of the youngest elected state legislators in Illinois history. And so began the political career of late U.S. Senator Paul Simon, one of Illinois’ most beloved and accomplished legislators.
Over 50 years later, a new generation of young progressives is eager to follow in Simon’s footsteps. Frustrated by the destructive and divisive politics of the Bush-led GOP and tired of missed opportunities in Springfield, young people are increasingly running for state and local office. With a lot of work and a little luck, their vision for an invigorated Democratic Party focused on transparency and equity could be realized sooner rather than later.
