Progress Illinois

The tax talks are heating up in the state capitol, but it's still anybody's guess if lawmakers will vote to raise revenues before the veto session ends and what type of increase Democratic legislative leaders will choose to push.

As expected, Gov. Pat Quinn, House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago), and Senate President John Cullerton discussed several options yesterday to help close what the Institute of Government and Public Affairs says could be a $17 billion hole. The baseline they are working from seems to be the comprehensive package the State Senate passed in 2009, which is an encouraging sign. (It's unlikely a 1 percentage point increase in the income tax would eliminate Illinois' structural deficit.) Part of the increase could also be made temporary, according to several reports, and Quinn's borrowing plan is still on the table, too. (For background on these options, check out the veto session primer we published yesterday.)

Republican leaders are already characterizing the deal as a Democratic overreach. On WLS' Don Wade and Roma this morning, the hosts and Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) took pains to emphasize that raising the income tax rate from 3 percent to 5 percent is a "67 percent increase." Listen (the full clip is available here):

Mathematically, Radogno's statement is accurate. And a hike that large sounds terrifying and irresponsible. But when pols use that framing to explain the bump, they omit important context about Illinois' tax system. Of the 41 states that impose an individual income tax, Illinois' 3 percent rate is the lowest in the nation, a point former Gov. Jim Edgar readily admits. A smart package could also lower the tax burden facing low-income and working people, which is actually onerous. (The rich in Illinois, on the other hand, make out like bandits.) Can lawmakers pull one together? Only time will tell.

Madigan is also forging ahead with his campaign to pass two controversial constitutional amendments, one that would limit state spending (HJRCA 61) and another that require a super-majority to increase pension benefits for employees of state and local governments and school districts (HJRCA 62). Yesterday, 80 community organizations and service providers affiliated with Illinois Partners for Human Service signed a letter to lawmakers in opposition to the TABOR amendment, which they said "would hurt people all over Illinois by locking in state spending at artificially low levels without regard to population growth, rising costs or increased demand for vital services." AARP issued a similar statement, suggesting the change would "worsen an already critical situation for thousands of providers and millions of Illinoisans who need those services." Each measure would need three-fifths majority in both chambers and voter approval at the next statewide election.