Progress Illinois

The Wall Street Journal surveys 54 economists who predict the national unemployment rate will continue to drop but at a slow pace, leaving the nation with 7.7 percent of the workforce unemployed as voters go to the polls in November 2012. That percentage would mark the highest unemployment rate during a presidential election since 1976, when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford. At that rate, the percent of unemployed workers won't hit 5.5 percent -- the figure considered to be full employment -- until 2015.

Such employment numbers could mean a tough road ahead for President Obama and Democrats throughout the country. And there are ominous signs on the horizon -- the Journal's survey increases the possibility of another recession in the next 12 months, thanks to rising gas prices. It also predicts that housing prices will continue to fall this year before rebounding somewhat in 2012. Check out the charts here.

The economist Andrew Sum is out with some analysis of his own of the unemployment figures from the recession. He looked at the data from 2007-2009, and found that nearly 15.5 million were displaced from their jobs in that period, the highest number in a three-year period in 30 years. Almost 11 percent of workers over the age of 20 were displaced, "the highest dislocation rate in our post-WWII history."

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a drop in the unemployment rate in February to 8.9 percent, Obama said, "That's progress." But it isn't enough progress.

When the coverage of the mayoral campaign wasn't discussing Rahm Emanuel's residency or Carol Moseley Braun's latest gaffe, it focused on the city's finances, the school system, and the residency requirement. What was largely absent from the race, however, was unemployment. Perhaps that's because throughout the campaign, the city's unemployment rate dropped to 8.6 percent. But a new report by the Chicago Reporter shows why that's a misleading figure and why Mayor-elect Emanuel should be talking about the racial disparity amongst the city's unemployment.

In September, Progress Illinois highlighted the staggering level of economic stagnation and unemployment in Chicago's black population. At the time, the citywide unemployment rate was at 10.5 percent, but it was more than double that in some of the city's black neighborhoods.

And while the overall unemployment rate is dropping throughout the city, the disparity is still very much an issue. Megan Cottrell of the Chicago Reporter, in the first piece in the publication's series to highlight "five shocking facts about Chicago," reports that unemployment in the city's black population is at 21.4 percent, making it the highest unamployment rate in the 10 cities the Reporter investigated. The unemployment rate in the Latino population is also high, coming in at 13.3 percent. The unemployment rate in the white population, meanwhile, is 7.8 percent. Cottrell then asked, "why does Chicago top the list for minority unemployment? Why do New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas and San Jose have us beat?"

Last week, we heard that the national unemployment rate had dropped to 9.0 percent and that the stock market hit a 30-month high -- evidence, no doubt, that the economy is showing signs of recovery. But the news is deceptive and while everyone admits that the unemployment rate is still too high, the surface-level "good news" of the falling rate is just that, surface-level.

For starters, the 9.0 percent figure is only one way to measure unemployment. The monthly figure produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. But what about those not in the labor force? Ezra Klein highlighted a chart put together by Mike Konczal showing that the unemployment rate is shrinking, not because people are finding jobs, but because they're leaving the labor force. Check it out:

To add to the unemployment crisis, as we've previously noted, states are in dire straits to pay unemployment insurance (UI). Thirty states around the country, including Illinois, counted on interest-free loans to bolster their unemployment trust funds, providing the newly unemployed with a basic safety net during the country's deepest economic crisis in some 70 years. But now, the provision that allowed the feds to tender the loans without an interest rate has now expired.

A recent study by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities and the National Employment Law Project released ahead of President Barack Obama's budget shows that as states pay back their loans, they could be forced to tax employers at a higher rate, further threatening employment. The report calls for a series of reforms, including a moratorium on interest payments states make to the federal government on UI loans and incentives to states that maintain healthy UI trust funds. The Obama administration recognizes the need for a fix and recently laid out a proposal to help states cope with their debt burdens. Stay tuned as more details of the plan are expected next week.