Progress Illinois

U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. enjoys a 54 percent to 32 percent lead against challenger Debbie Halvorson in Illinois’ 2nd District Congressional race, according to the latest poll by We Asked America.

Jackson has the endorsements of key Democratic Party leaders, from Barack Obama to Rahm Emanuel. The latest to endorse the 17-year congressman is House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

The Jackson campaign has shaped discussion of the race lately by focusing on times in Congress when he voted differently than Halvorson, who served Illinois’ 11th District between January 2009 and January 2011.

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On his blog this morning, Politico's Ben Smith notes that Mark Kirk ran about 20 points below his statewide average in some of the leading coal-producing counties, losing votes to a low-performing southern Illinois-based candidate. He quotes this observation from colleague Charlie Mahtesian: "But the bottom line here is that Kirk’s cap -and-trade vote mattered." Mahtesian is probably right that the vote played some role, but it seems like one heckuva jump to assert that deeply conservative voters from Southern Illinois coal country would have accepted a pro-choice Republican even if he had not flipped to their side on cap-and-trade. Extrapolating anything of national significance from that small data set, especially considering its comes from a low-turnout GOP primary, seems foolish.