Progress Illinois

In the first primary since the media declared her candidacy more-or-less dead, Hillary Clinton is expected to win by large margins in West Virginia today. The New York Senator has campaigned across the state while Barack Obama made just a token visit to a veterans organization, essentially writing off the contest.

It's no wonder why Obama ignored the Mountain State. According to the AP, his wave of superdelegate endorsements will put him within reach of the Democratic presidential nomination by June 3 — even if he loses half of the remaining six contests. He's netted 26 superdelegate endorsements in the past week.  Meanwhile, a new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds Obama leading John McCain 51%-44% nationally.

In Oregon yesterday, McCain unveiled his energy plan with a call to action on global warming and an indictment of the Bush administration's "failed" policies to combat it. Climate experts confirm that the package is an improvement over Bush's policies but falls far short of Obama's plan.

Lawmakers return to Springfield today to finish the General Assembly's spring session and there's lots to address before their scheduled adjournment on May 29, including a new state budget, congressional pay raises, a new ethics proposal, and a statewide construction program.

Regional Transportation Authority Chairman Jim Reilly had harsh words for those returning state legislators Monday, chastising them for not completing a capital spending plan for mass transit and the repair of deteriorating roads. "We say we're a world-class city," he said, "yet we in transit will be very lucky if we get enough money just to maintain what is basically a late 19th Century and early 20th Century system."

A Chicago City Council committee agreed to a $50 million settlement Monday -- the largest in city history -- for survivors and the relatives of six victims of a 2003 high-rise fire in the Loop. The Mikva Commission concluded that 911 calls from people trapped inside the burning building "went into a black hole" of communications breakdowns.

Tribune Co. Chairman Sam Zell is taking the Cubbies private. The media mogul rejected former Gov. Jim Thompson's complex plan to acquire and renovate Wrigley Field publicly and instead will package the Cubs and their stadium in a private transaction, a deal that could command over $1 billion on the open market.

In my article yesterday on the potential effect of Obama's massive voter registration drive, I referred frequently to increments of increased turnout among certain demographic groups in specific states.

From an organizing standpoint, however, the more important data relates to the universe of voters in each state: the number that are eligible to vote and the number of those that are unregistered. So I've put together a spreadsheet that lays out the relevant registration numbers in 20 significant states (using U.S. Census data collected after the 2004 election). You can view it here or download it here.

Also, over at FiveThirtyEight, Poblano posted a Q&A regarding his methodology.  It's worth a read.

In a development that doesn't bode well for his 11th District run, five people have contradicted a claim that cement magnate and GOP congressional candidate Marty Ozinga made in a sworn affidavit stemming from a lawsuit over a land deal.

The suit in question was brought by Ozinga Bros. Inc. and alleges that 83-year-old family farmer Raymond Kunkel sold a 190-acre lot optioned by the company. Ozinga Bros. is now trying to force Kunkel to sell the land to them.

The farmer's attorney initially asked that Ozinga give a deposition about the deal, but Ozinga sought to keep himself out of court by claiming he "had no contact or communication of any kind" with the farmer. Kunkel and four other witnesses have since countered Ozinga's claim, saying he was personally involved in contract negotiations:

"I was amazed at the affidavit of Martin Ozinga," Kunkel's attorney, William Anderson of Creve Coeur, told Barra. "Martin Ozinga personally negotiated this contract."

Kunkel had demanded the face-to-face meeting with the company head, Anderson said outside court. According to affidavits, the meeting took place in the home of Joseph and Georgiana Brent, who witnessed it; a company employee named Ron Smith; and Kenin Edwards, a Pekin man who was then collaborating with Ozinga in efforts to develop the gravel pit and port.

Now, because of the conflicting accounts, Judge John Barra has said Ozinga must give a deposition. Any discrepancies between his testimony and his sworn statements in the affidavit are sure to be scrutinized.

As Capitol Fax's Rich Miller points out, these types of court cases are not uncommon in the business world. But the fact that Ozinga's company is suing an 83-year-old farmer for his land doesn't exactly help his "man-of-the-people" congressional campaign. His alleged misrepresentations only make things worse for Ozinga, who already faces other allegations of shady business practices.

Since arriving on Capitol Hill in March, Bill Foster has been keeping busy. On his first day in office, he cast the deciding procedural vote on an bill championed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to create an independent, outside panel to investigate ethics complaints against House members. Since then, as The Beacon News reports, he's turned his attention to the deceptive and exploitative techniques of predatory lenders and credit card companies.

Such regulation is vitally important, especially in times of economic downturn. As Mose reported last month, predatory lending is a growing industry that nudges unknowing low-income borrowers into cycles of debt through loans strapped with exorbitant interest rates. Credit card companies aren't much better: after the industry was throughly deregulated in the late 1970s, banks bilked cash from clients through confusing and punitive measures while simultaneously lobbying Congress to implement bankruptcy reforms that made it even more difficult for working households to crawl out from under their debts.

Using his role on the House Financial Services Committee, Foster is now doing his part to push back, advocating legislation that would standardize credit card service contracts:

"There are a lot of 'gotchas' like double-cycle billing buried in the fine print that nobody ever gets the chance to read," he said. "I don't want to have the situation where credit card companies are competing with each other over who has the cleverest fine print.

"There's a lot to be done to protect credit card consumers."

He also intends to write a bill regulating payday loan businesses, arguing that they represent "an end run around the usury laws. They're siphoning money from communities that can least afford it."

(Image used under a Creative Commons license from Flickr user taberandrew.)

In a sign that perennial GOP candidate Jim Oberweis is intent on running again for the 14th Congressional District, the Beacon News reports that he has been calling supporters -- and reporters -- to ask for their thoughts on "what went wrong" during his failed special election campaign:

Since losing the March special election to now-Rep. Bill Foster, Oberweis has been contacting people involved in the race, people who commented on the race, and people [...] who covered the race. He's been meeting with as many of these people as he can, trying to pick their brains and find out where his campaign went off track.

Such an approach is not completely unexpected. The Beacon News writes that "the relentless negativity of his campaign turned a lot of voters off" and we previously noted that part of Oberweis' new campaign strategy involves an image overhaul. Oberweis' new campaign spokesman says that part of their November strategy will be "letting people know who Jim is."

The problem there is that, after his failed four attempts at public office in Illinois, many voters seem to have a pretty good idea "who Jim is." They just don't like what they see.

Jo Becker and Christopher Drew's lengthy New York Times' article on Barack Obama's "evolution from Hyde Park independent to mainstream Chicago politician" is meant to inform our understanding of how the Democratic nominee will build a viable electoral coalition this year. But the piece is more valuable for it's insight into how an Obama administration might govern if elected.

Take this quote from Will Burns, a former aide who consulted on Obama's now famous 2002 anti-war speech:

“What’s fascinating about Barack is what he’s trying to do is reframe and change the discourse so you build support for liberal alternatives within the electorate. He has an ability to frame stuff so it’s not an all or nothing proposition.”

This statement embodies the hope that his backers on the left see in Obama. Unlike the last Democratic nominee, who was badly damaged by the idea that his rhetoric was hollow and politically opportunistic, Obama seems to understand that a progressive agenda, while favored by voters on its merits, doesn't yet enjoy a popular political mandate. To get there, Obama seems focused on acknowledging and discrediting conservative policies while cultivating support for his own nuanced positions among a variety of voters who hold divergent views.

This "pragmatic" approach is rooted more in his experiences as a community organizer than his rise through Hyde Park. It will hopefully put him in a stronger position to not only win the race in November, but once elected, to push progressive policies more forcefully than any recent Democratic president.

Critics of the Indiana voter ID law upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court late last month warned that the highly restrictive bill could set a dangerous precedent by giving cover to other fledgling anti-voter campaigns nationwide.

Our neighbors in Missouri are already upping the ante.

Legislators there are expected to support a proposed constitutional amendment that would force potential voters to provide a proof of citizenship to register. While most states require some sort of identification to vote -- generally a utility bill, a paycheck, drivers license, or student/military id card -- the Missouri law would narrow eligible verification materials to an original birth certificate, naturalization papers, or a passport.

Why is such an amendment necessary? Supporters say proof of citizenship measures improve the accuracy of registration rolls, gives voters confidence in the process, and eases growing concerns about illegal voting by undocumented immigrants. But just as in Indiana, the evidence of such fraud is nonexistent. Indeed, The New York Times reported that, between October 2002 to September 2005, the Justice Department indicted only 40 voters for registration fraud or illegal voting, 21 of whom were non-citizens. Missouri lawmakers can't provide any relevant local evidence of voter fraud.

Meanwhile, the negative effects are striking. Robin Carnahan, Missouri's secretary of state, estimated that the law could disenfranchise up to 240,000 already registered voters who would be unable to prove their citizenship. And in a crucial presidential swing state, those voters could tip the scales. According to a January study by Brown University, if voter ID policies had not been in place in 19 states in 2004, turnout would have increased by more than 1.6 million.

The fate of the Missouri bill is still very much up in the air, as it would have to be approved by voters in the state's August gubernatorial primary before the legislature could enact it. But sadly, with the Supreme Court's implicit blessing, the odds are in its favor.

Tornadoes tore across Missouri, Oklahoma, and Georgia yesterday leaving a trail of destruction and at least 22 dead. Federal and state governments are promising aid as rescuers search for the dead and wounded. The damage to some communities was so great that they may not rebuild.

Looking even more like the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama overcame Hillary Clinton's once formidable lead in superdelegates on Saturday. The Illinois Senator pulled ahead with the announcement that three previously undecided superdelegates would support him as well as two from the U.S. Virgin Islands who had earlier backed Clinton. Obama's continued momentum is prompting many to wonder how much longer Clinton will stay in the race.

Closing arguments for the Tony Rezko corruption trial are set to begin today. Trial watchers are wondering what tactics will be employed by defense and prosecution as the case winds down, and also whether Rezko might cut a deal with prosecutors if he feels that a guilty verdict is likely.

As time dwindles for the state legislature to decide on a budget for the coming fiscal year, one group has blasted the Governor's FY 2009 plan as unrealistic and potentially damaging to the state's already precarious financial situation. The Civic Federation of Chicago has accused the governor and some lawmakers of being unwilling to make necessary spending cuts or revenue increases.

Critics are piling on a plan to create designated bus lanes in some Chicago streets. The Federal government has awarded the city more than $153 million to try the innovative approach which will encourage the use of public transportation. But some say the project will create a traffic nightmare in the already gridlocked streets of the city.

In a personal appeal to city residents and officials on Saturday, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley proposed a ban on automatic weapons. The statement comes as the city saw 80 homicides, mostly gun-related, in the first four months of the year. The gun violence has lead 86 Illinois counties to ask the state government to enact stricter gun control. Though the State Journal-Register reported on Sunday that Sangamon County would not back the resolution.

You can add the postage stamp to the growing list of things that have gotten more expensive as of late. The cost of a first class stamp will go up one cent today to 42 cents.

At her Ultimate Power Lunch yesterday, Rep. Jan Schakowsky told the Tribune it's time for Hillary Clinton to bow out: ""There really are no options left, so now the decision is really the exit plan."

Sen. Dick Durbin sounded a similar note:

"Only Hillary can make this decision, no one can make it for her. Those who think that they can push or pull, it's not going to work. She has to make this decision. If I were to counsel her, and she's not asking me, [but] if I were, I would tell her this is a great moment for her to seize, where she can bring the party together, rally her supporters for the good of the cause and maybe in the process sit down with Barack and take care of two unfinished pieces of business: Michigan and Florida. If the two of them can work it out, then I think it would be a great close to what has been a terrific campaign that she's waged."

Back in March, we noted how a Facebook group created by Lake Forest College sophomore Phil Miatkowski to rally support for Illinois Rep. Greg Harris' (D-Chicago) civil union bill had attracted over 8,000 members. Well, the AP is reporting today that that number has climbed to nearly 9,000:

At first, his site detailed the bill's progress for friends, who began inviting hundreds of other friends.

Within weeks, Miatkowski and students from across the state organized online "rallies" to flood legislators with e-mails, faxes and phone calls. Members also have held petition drives at train stations, written editorials and set up campus events.

The group's efforts made enough of an impression that Illinois lawmakers mentioned it to Harris, sponsor of the civil unions bill. Harris contacted Miatkowski and other student leaders to discuss how to gather more momentum on the bill.

"This is an organic thing. That's the exciting thing about it," Harris said. "There's no way I could talk to 9,000 individuals from every county in this state and get them on board with this. They did this themselves."

Harris' bill would give same-sex couples in Illinois equal rights and access to benefits. It advanced out of committee earlier this year and Harris says he's confident it will pass the full House before the year is over. You can learn more about the measure and the Illinoisans it would affect at CivilUnionsIllinois.org.