As the debate over expanding Wal-Mart's reach in Chicago has ramped back up, supporters for a new store on the city's South Side have played up the need to create jobs during the ongoing employment crunch. "There are people out here who need a job," an exacerbated Mayor Daley said during a news conference last month. "People could have been working here already," added Ald. Howard Brookins (21st Ward), suggesting that "the economy for the City of Chicago and the African American community would not have been as bad had we done this thing four years ago." On WTTW's Chicago Tonight yesterday, Ald. Emma Mitts -- whose 38th Ward includes the city's only Wal-Mart -- echoed the sentiment.

But will a new Wal-Mart really create such a surge of new jobs?  According to new research into the performance of the store in Mitts' own ward, the promises could amount to a whole lot of hype.

Between 2006 and the early part of 2008, researchers ate the Center for Urban Research and Learning (CURL) at Loyola University surveyed both the number of jobs created and the sales tax revenue generated within close proximity of that store.  They concluded that economic activity in the area was "a wash."  Their new report estimates that, while Wal-Mart created 320 full-time jobs, another 298 equivalent jobs were cut as 25 percent of neighboring retailers were driven out of business. And despite generating $10.2 million in sales tax revenue within the store during its first two years in operation, there was no overall growth in tax receipts in the area.  More from the study:

After Wal-Mart opened, [sales tax] growth in zip code 60639 fell to about zero. Rather than launching a new wave of retail development in its zip code, Wal-Mart’s opening coincides with a stagnation of retail growth in that zip code.

On WTTW yesterday, Mitts attempted to downplay the findings, claiming that "people see what they wanna see." But as the report's author, University of Illinois economic professor David Merriman, noted during the segment, the sales tax data provided by the Illinois Department of Revenue is all included in the report. "If the new businesses came in, we should see some impact on the data in the sales," he said in response to Mitts. "We don't see that. What we see is that sales are pretty much flat." Watch:

It's worth noting that researchers stopped their sales tax analysis at the first quarter of 2008, because of the shopping lull that's coincided with the recession. If you factor in the more recent data, Merriman adds, "you get even a worse effect." Moreover, they found that those stores closest to Wal-Mart that sold drugs, office supplies, toys and other merchandise were most likely to fold once Wal-Mart moved in.

"What this study confirms," Tom Otto of the West Humboldt Park Development Corporation says in the report, is "there's a pie and you're just divvying it up differently in terms of sales, number of jobs; it's just shifting."

And that only underscores why the current Wal-Mart debate -- which boils down to a fight over jobs vs. good jobs -- matters. Labor leaders and city officials have been negotiating with the mega-retailer to ensure that if the store does set set up shop, rather than continuing their race to the bottom on wages, the company will commit to paying at least $11.03 per hour.

As of late last month, Wal-Mart was still refusing to even negotiate on that point. Unfortunately, Mayor Daley is standing with them, recently telling WBEZ, "[C]itizens realize that if they can work for $10 an hour or $10.50. That's $80 a day they're getting or a little bit more. That's better than nothing."

The fight over the expansion could kick off in the City Council next week.  On Monday, the Finance Committee meets and we'll find out then if Wal-Mart is on the agenda. Stay tuned.