Progress Illinois

In a front page story today, political reporter Rick Pearson examines a new Tribune/WGN poll of 700 registered Illinois voters and describes President Obama's home-state approval rating as "shaky." Here's an excerpt:

The results of the poll, conducted Aug. 27-31, indicate many of Obama's home-state voters have the same concerns that voters have shown in national polling, where confusion over a complicated health-care reform plan and continued worries about employment have taken an even greater toll on the president's approval rating.

Rich Miller offers a thoughtful critique of Pearson's summary over at Capitol Fax, pointing out that it's not particularly instructive to compare Obama's current approval ratings with those from February, when they were artificially high and the president hadn't yet endured any bruising legislative fights. After all, Obama only won the state with 61 percent of the vote in November.

He also knocks Pearson for his supposition that "Obama’s standing with home-state voters could create problems for Illinois Democrats, if it continues into next year’s general election." A downward trend is obviously never encouraging for a politician or a party. But the president is still broadly popular in the state (only 33 percent disapprove of his performance thus far) and will likely remain so, especially if some version of health care reform is approved.

Then there's Pearson's conclusion regarding independents:

Among the potentially troubling signs for Democrats that surfaced in the survey was the fact that only about half of voters who describe themselves as independents approved of Obama's job performance. Illinois has voted Democratic in recent elections, but independents remain a key swing block.

The Tribune did not release the survey's cross tabs, so we can't see the exact figure Pearson is referring to here.  (Does "about half" mean slightly more than 50 percent? Slightly less?) But it's worth noting that, according to Illinois exit polls, 55 percent of self-described "Independents" supported Obama last November, compared to 43 percent for John McCain. Dropping a few percentage points is hardly definitive, let alone "potentially troubling."