Progress Illinois

The latest from Illinois' 2010 electoral landscape ...

U.S. SENATE

Rasmussen Reports released their first poll on the IL-SEN race yesterday, measuring head-to-head general election matchups between GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic candidates Alexi Giannoulias and Cheryle Jackson.  The toplines show Kirk and Giannoulias in a toss-up, while Kirk posts a considerable lead over Jackson:

Giannoulias (D): 38
Kirk (R): 41
Other: 4
Undecided: 17

Jackson (D): 30
Kirk (R): 47
Other: 6
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

The poll registered 83 percent name recognition for both Kirk and Giannoulias and 74 percent for Jackson.  Giannoulias was recognized by 70 percent of respondents in an April poll, so it seems feasible that he could his name ID could have jumped in the months since.  Kirk's numbers seem extremely high for a member of Congress who has never run for statewide office.  That being said, he probably gets more media coverage than any other Illinois representative.  Then there is Jackson's 74 percent name ID, which just seems unrealistic considering she's never run for office, let alone been on a statewide ballot.

In short, wait for a few other surveys to surface before putting too much stock in this poll.

In other U.S. Senate news, Jackson is facing questions about her role in the Blagojevich administration's Loop Lab School debacle. Meanwhile, Sun-Times columnist Laura Washington yesterday described the Jackson "playbook" as she sees it:

Rake in some heavy green. While her profile will attract some soft-focused free media, this political unknown needs money big time for TV commercial time.

Jackson's got to play the race and gender cards. She is assiduously wooing Emily's List, the powerful national PAC that backs women candidates. As Giannoulias has done in the Greek community, she must cultivate a national profile among prominent women and monied Democratic liberals.

The black "keep-the-seaters" are an unpredictable bunch, but they could come in handy, as well.

IL GOVERNOR

The Rasmussen poll also measured favorability for Gov. Pat Quinn, Comptroller Dan Hynes (who plans to challenge Quinn in next year's Democratic primary), as well as the various Republican contendors.  Here's what they found (favorable/unfavorable/not sure):

Pat Quinn (D): 53/43/4
Dan Hynes (D): 46/26/28 

State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R): 22/27/51
State Sen. Matt Murphy (R): 17/24/59
State Sen. Bill Brady (R): 29/21/50
Dan Proft (R): 17/20/62
Robert Schillerstrom (R): 18/21/62

7th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

For some time now, we've been skeptical about Rep. Danny Davis' so-called bid for Cook County Board President.  Our doubts that he would actually pull the trigger were only reinforced when we learned that he is collecting petitions for both the county board race and his congressional reelection.  As ABC 7's Charles Thomas reports, the resulting uncertainy is starting to annoy some of his would-be successors, such as State Rep. La Shawn Ford.  Watch it:

COOK COUNTY BOARD PRESIDENT

The Sun-Times' Michael Sneed "hears" that Cook County Board President Todd Stroger's "resolve to seek re-election is weakening big-time."  Greg Hinz talked to Stroger directly and added this:

Embattled incumbent Todd Stroger says he is running for a new term, despite heavy buzz that he's under pressure to give up the presidency and just run for a board seat now held by Bill Beavers.

News stories like this one can't help but ratchet up that pressure.

Also, Comm. Larry Suffredin has announced that he will run for reelection, rather than make a bid for board president or county assessor.  Jeff Smith gives his thoughts over at Prairie State Blue:

In a season where "stay put" is the option many are opting for, this move by my Commissioner (Larry holds the seat I ran for in '94) could be see as a proverbial "smart play. It's also important for the Board to have some continuity, with both Claypool and Quigley gone come 2011. Because Larry had built up a countywide fundraising base and name recognition, undoubtedly this was a difficult decision, and one in which personal and family considerations weighed as well.

Finally, Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown -- a candidate for board president -- is accused in a class action lawsuit of creating a "slush fund" out of advertising revenue generated by a court website.

10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

An interesting tidbit from the Swing State Project:

[National Republican Campaign Committee] recruitment wiz kid Kevin McCarthy parachuted himself into the Chicagoland area on Saturday in order to survey the recruitment progress in race to defend GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's open seat. He met with a small batch of prospects, including stock market analyst Dick Green, attorney Bill Cadigan (a former staffer for ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who held the 10th District for two decades prior to Kirk), and businessman Bob Dold. Interestingly, that list didn't include any of the district's deep bench of Republican state legislators. I'm not sure if we should read that as a tea leaf that state Rep. Beth Coulson may not be serious about running, but it appears that the GOP is preparing for the prospect of defending this seat with a political newcomer. 

UPDATE: Roll Call reports that state Rep. Beth Coulson plans to announce that she'll make a bid for the 10th District seat on August 24.

REMAINDERS

State Sen. Terry Link is running as a Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor.  (There had been some specualation he might jump into the IL-10 primary).

And Alan Cottrell has posted video of Giannoulias chief of staff Robin Kelly's announcement last week of her campaign for state treasurer. Watch it: