Yesterday, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius unveiled a detailed analysis of how individual states would fare under the Senate's health care reform bill.   Here's the estimated take-away in Illinois (this analysis does not factor in the local impact of a public option):

- 1.8 million residents who do not currently have insurance and 612,000 residents who have nongroup insurance could get affordable coverage through the health insurance exchange.

- 1 million residents could qualify for premium tax credits to help them purchase health coverage.

- 1.8 million seniors would receive free preventive services.

- 314,000 seniors would have their brand-name drug costs in the Medicare Part D “doughnut hole” halved.

- 144,000 small businesses could be helped by a small business tax credit to make premiums more affordable.

The report also provides projections regarding the wider economic impact of the proposed reforms.

By extending tax credits to 144,000 small businesses across the state so they can insure their workforce affordably, entrepreneurs will finally be able to redirect money to growing the Illinois workforce rather than simply trying to keep up with ever-skyrocketing premiums. Illinois would also stop hemorrhaging roughly $2.2 billion a year in uncompensated care (much of which is passed along to taxpayers in the form of a "hidden tax"). And $9.1 billion would be freed up over the next decade by curbing the rising cost of out-of-pocket premiums, deductibles, and co-payments. In turn, consumers would be free to spend that extra income, giving other sectors of the state's economy a boost.

In the absence of serious reform, however, the health crisis will just worsen. In more than half of the nation's states, HHS notes, the ranks of the uninsured will grow another 30 percent by 2019. Meanwhile, uncompensated care will likely double over that period and businesses could see their premiums double.