PI Original Josh Kalven Friday January 30th, 2009, 1:14pm

Research 2000 Poll Gives Dems Edge In 2010 Senate Race (UPDATED)

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll out today examines the state-of-play in the 2010 U.S. Senate race.  The candidates tested include Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, and Alexi Giannoulias on the Democratic side and Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam for the Republicans.  ...

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll out today examines the state-of-play in the 2010 U.S. Senate race.  The candidates tested include Roland Burris, Jan Schakowsky, and Alexi Giannoulias on the Democratic side and Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam for the Republicans.  Conclusions drawn: Burris and Kirk can't be happy with their unfavorables and the Illinois GOP can't be happy with their current general election prospects.

Here's a look at the Democratic primary:

Burris 26
Schakowsky 12
Giannoulias 11
Undecided 51

Burris' lead can probably be attributed to the amount of publicity he received amidst the appointment scandal, which drove up his name ID.  But with over 50 percent undecided, it will be tough for him to hold on to that edge, particularly considering his unfavorables:

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion

Burris 35/35/30
Schakowsky 33/10/57
Giannoulias 36/15/49 

Looking at these two sets of figures, it appears Schakowsky and Giannoulias are on a level playing field.  Both need to get their name ID up, which they have plenty of time to do, assuming one or both throw their hat in the ring soon.

Now check out the Republican side.  Kirk has the highest name ID of any of the candidates on either side of the aisle.  He also has over 40 percent unfavorability:

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion

Kirk 37/41/22
Roskam 19/23/58

Yikes. This only lends support to the theory that Kirk would have a tough time winning a statewide GOP primary.

Finally, the head-to-heads show all three of the Democrat candidates beating either Republican candidate, with over 30 percent undecided in each case.  Kos' conclusion: "Republicans start off in a hole that will be tough to overcome. Illinois voters still don't like them." Read his whole analysis here.

(H/T Capitol Fax)

UPDATE (1:30 p.m., 6/29/2010): The DailyKos, who commissioned this poll, has renounced all of their polling conducted through Research 2000, including this survey.

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