Progress Illinois

On November 5, political observers will find out just how strong the blue hue in Chicago's collar counties actually is.

Barack Obama's popularity in the region is the Democrats' biggest asset. For example, in the 10th Congressional District, which includes huge chunks of Lake County, our poll shows Obama with a 21 point advantage. In the south suburban 11th, McCain trails by 11 percentage points. And according to a recent Chicago Tribune poll, Obama edges McCain 47-39 in the collar counties as well. As Rich Miller noted back in March, the national GOP will “likely abandon the state if Obama is at the top of the ticket, which could cost Republicans about a million dollars in national cash and could lead to some serious legislative blowouts in unexpected places.” Tack on Obama's Chicago ad-buy -- an attempt to pick off some Northwest Indiana voters in the unexpected battleground -- and there's little doubt about an Obama landslide in northern Illinois.

The voter registration boom could change the dynamic in Chicago's suburbs as well. Excitement over the historic presidential race, along with concerted progressive efforts to register new suburban voters, has led to a swelling of the rolls, one reason the Republican Lake County clerk might be stoking concerns about mass "voter fraud."

Meanwhile, House Speaker Michael Madigan and the Democrats are wielding their large cash advantage on down-ballot races, hoping to increase their Springfield majority. The Daily Herald reports:

Democrats are outspending Republicans nearly 2-1 in contentious state House races across the suburbs as they push to expand the party's inroads in the once GOP-dominated region.

Led by House Speaker Michael Madigan, Democratic candidates and the state's party have raised or spent about $2.1 million compared to the GOP's $1.1 million in the last four months on eight key legislative battles across the suburbs.

One race that's gaining a lot of attention is the 65th House district, which pits Aurora Austriaco, a 43-year-old community activist and lawyer, against eight-term Republican State Rep. Rosemary Mulligan. Campaign disclosures show the Democrat raised $165,904 since July, $60,000 of which came from the state party. Her fundraising has exceeded Mulligan's by about $70,000.  But while the Obama excitement is certainly helpful, Austriaco -- like many other Democratic statehouse candidates -- is being slammed by her opponent for ties to our extremely unpopular governor.  Congressional candidates such as Jill Morgenthaler and Debbie Halvorson have faced similar attacks.

Back in June, we posted the graphic below (click for larger version) and wondered out loud what the 2008 Illinois map would look like:

There are 13 days before November 4 and some of the tight federal congressional races may very well go to the GOP.  But Illinois Democrats have plenty of reason to be hopeful that the map will look bluer than ever.