A new poll released late yesterday by Roll Call and conducted by Survey USA (FiveThirtyEight's second highest rated pollster) found Democrat Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by eight points in the 10th Congressional District, 52-44 percent. From the write-up (subscription required):
SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana’s 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right). [...]
Kirk has thrived politically despite the liberal lean of his suburban Chicago district. But Seals, running with little help from the national party, came within 7 points of the Republican in 2006. But the DCCC is playing in the district this year, and Kirk saw it coming: He has raised an astounding $4.6 million for the race so far.
But even that amount of money might not be able to get Kirk past Seals in what is shaping up to be a Democratic year, especially with a Chicago Democrat at the top of the ticket. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama led McCain in the district 62 percent to 36 percent — a margin that’s 20 points greater than Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) margin over Bush in the 2004 White House election.
The Survey USA poll comes on the heels of a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released over the weekend that put Seals behind by six (and sent the Kirk campaign into a tizzy). Archpundit notes that Kirk came in at 44 percent in both polls and suggests a possible reason for the disparity in Seals' numbers:
Survey USA’s technique are robopolls and so they tend to push everyone to a choice even if they are undecided. What this could (all caveats again) be saying is that the undecideds are leaning Democratic.
Seems like a reasonable conclusion.
Comments
markg8 on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 09:35
Scott Harper in IL-13 is on the verge of sending 10 year incumbent Bush loving Judy Biggert back to her Hinsdale mansion. But thanks to Kos and Cook's love for Dan Seals it's been hard raising funds over the last week. All our local donors are throwing money at Seals lately but frankly Scott has as good or an even better shot because Biggert is a much worse House rep than Kirk. For instance she sat on the Financial Services Committee and fought against regulating banks and mortgage companies that led us into this mess.
It's always an uphill challenge the first time around, especially if you're not a national media and net darling. Scott made Feingold's Progressive Patriots list last week but apparently nobody even noticed. Harper has her on the run but we need more cash for ads at the finish.
If you have a few bucks please send some Scott's way. Every little bit helps:
http://www.actblue.com/page/markglowdollar
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