Yesterday, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's campaign released an internal poll showing him with a significant lead over Democratic challenger Dan Seals. Here are the head-to-head results:
Dan Seals (D): 29%
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51%
Undecided: 21%
Today, the Swing State Project provides some much needed context:
On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted
Mel (not verified) on Tue, 09/16/2008 - 15:27
Mark Kirk does everything he can to make sure he get his name in the news. Furthermore win or lose he is going to run for governor in 2010 and would have no time for the 10th district. Enough of Mark Kirk, I believe the 10th will elect Dan Seals on November 4th,
Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 10/30/2008 - 10:05
Kirk is not running for Governor in 2010. I don't know who told you that but it's false. As for his re-election bid, I think he will win handily. At the end of the day, people aren't going to buy Dan Seals' tactic of guilt by association. Sure he is a Republican, but he has been closer to an independent in terms of the policies he has supported and the votes he has cast. People are pleased with him and there is no need to elect a guy who doesn't live in the district and is just looking for a congressional seat to win.
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