House Republicans believe they've struck liquid (political) gold with their recent oil drilling gambit. Rep. Peter Roskam cut his vacation short to head to D.C. and voice his concern. Rep. Don Manzullo says this could be "America’s greatest hour." Minority Leader John Boehner even thinks Americans are so eager to drill that they "will hang" House Speaker Nancy Pelosi if she doesn't call for an up-and-down vote.
But are Americans really that supportive of the GOP proposals? Guest blogging for Kevin Drum, Gallup managing editor David Moore says that when asked about drilling in isolation, Americans voice great support for the approach. But things get a lot murkier when the poll questions are more subtle and realistic:
A couple of polls addressed the energy issue a bit differently, and they found a more ambivalent public. Pew Research, for example, asked which of two approaches should receive higher priority: "expanding exploration, mining and drilling and the construction of new power plants, OR, more energy conservation and regulation on energy use and prices?" Instead of overwhelming support for more oil drilling, the public was evenly divided between that approach and conservation (47 percent to 45 percent respectively).
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll offered five different approaches to dealing with the energy problems. Almost half (46 percent) opted for energy conservation and more emphasis on wind and solar, while 40 percent chose offshore oil drilling and drilling in protected areas in Alaska, while 10 percent preferred nuclear power.
And the CNN poll actually measured intensity of opinion, by asking if people "strongly" or "mildly" favored, or "strongly" or "mildly" opposed increased offshore oil drilling. The results found 46 percent "strongly" in favor, with 18 percent "strongly" opposed. More than a third, 35 percent, held only "mild" opinions. (In all discussions of the CNN results, however, there was no mention of the "mild" and "strong" opinions. The two groups were combined according to favor and oppose, which is typical of the way poll results are treated.)
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IL Pol (not verified) on Tue, 08/12/2008 - 08:36
There are a lot of polls out there asking the same thing in different ways. They are open to interpretation, but most of them show the majority of the public - certainly the majority of the swing voters - favor environmentally sensitive exploration for energy in the outer continental shelf.
I think the most telling piece of information is that Barack Obama, who has the most to lose by misinterpreting the polls, has changed his stance on offshore drilling and has now put it into play as a possibility.