We've done our part to dispel the rumor that Barack Obama's candidacy will be doomed by his disadvantage among white working class voters -- particularly those in Appalachia. But if you want further proof, look no further than this analysis from Brookings Institution fellow Ruy Teixeira, who co-authored the new paper (pdf) "The Decline of the White Working Class and the Rise of a Mass Upper Middle Class." New York Times reporter John Harwood asked Teixeira how much support Obama will need to generate among this demographic group to upend John McCain. The answer is encouraging to say the least:
Mr. Obama, who leads the delegate count, “is clocking in where he needs to be” with white, working-class voters to win the White House in November, Mr. Teixeira said. [...]
Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.
In recent national polls, that is exactly what Mr. Obama is doing. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Mr. Obama trailing by 12 percentage points with working-class whites; a poll by Quinnipiac University, showed him trailing by seven points. In each survey, Mr. Obama led over all by seven points.
“Yes, he has a problem,” Mr. Teixeira said. “But it’s a solvable problem.”
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