Progress Illinois

Barack Obama may not have technically won Indiana Tuesday night, but by holding Hillary Clinton to a whisker-thin 11,000-vote margin, he administered the final blow to her tiny hopes of victory. Indiana did indeed turn out to be the “tie breaker."

Even before North Carolina and Indiana, the delegate math made it almost impossible to deny Obama the Democratic nomination. But Clinton’s Pennsylvania victory, her constant attacks, and Reverend Wright’s re-emergence into the campaign had some Democrats feeling queasy.

Obama’s 14 percent landslide in North Carolina did much to reassure them that he was not mortally damaged by the weeks of negative attacks. But it was when the numbers narrowed in Indiana that you could feel the cold winds shift, as if a political warm-front had swept in, bringing with it the breezes of victory. The pundits' tone morphed from “big night for Hillary” to Tim Russert’s assertion that “We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be, and no one is going to dispute it.”

The methodical, high-intensity Obama field operation contributed much to his Indiana success through its mobilization of African-Americans and young people. But the key to Indiana was his solid performance among whites. Obama garnered 40 percent of the white vote in Indiana, better than the 34 percent he won in Ohio and 37 percent in Pennsylvania – and he did it after two solid weeks of Reverend Wright re-reruns. He also did better among whites without college degrees. Obama had won only 27 percent of that demographic in Ohio and 29 percent in Pennsylvania, but in Indiana he attracted 34 percent.

Every age group but those over 60 went for Obama. Independents went his way, 54-to-46. And in both North Carolina and Indiana, a substantial majority thought Obama was more likely than Clinton to beat John McCain (55-to-39 in North Carolina; 51-to-46 in Indiana).

Had Hillary won a substantial victory in Indiana, that still would have been okay for Obama. The numbers were still with him. But the virtual tie in Indiana really turned the political tide.

One reason Barack did better than expected in Indiana – and improved on his Pennsylvania and Ohio performance – was the state’s proximity to Illinois. This provided Barack with two key advantages.

First, the Illinois Obama organization – and supporters like my wife, Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky – mustered volunteers by the hundreds to supplement the already robust Indiana field operation. These volunteers provided thousands of days worth of canvassing and phone banking.

Second, many voters in Indiana know Barack. Residents in the northwest corner of the state get Chicago TV, often read Chicago newspapers, and many of them work in the city. It’s often forgotten that voters in Terra Haute and Evansville also get Illinois TV stations and their local networks often cover Prairie State stories to meet the needs of the many Illinois viewers in their own markets.

My mother used to say that you know that a romantic relationship has promise if the better you know the other person, the better you like them. When it comes to politics, it’s certainly true in Obama’s case. When he first ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, many pundits laughed that an African-American guy with a name like Obama had no chance at all in rural Illinois. Wrong.

As people in small cities and rural areas downstate got to know Obama that election year, they warmed up fast. In the end Obama won almost 53 percent of the primary vote statewide against three other strong candidates. When the original Republican candidate was forced to leave the race because of a sex scandal, Obama was so strong that the state GOP was forced to ship in Alan Keyes from Maryland to be their candidate. Obama crushed him in the general election.

I had dinner recently with the chair of the Scott County Democratic Party. She described Barack’s first meeting during the 2004 campaign with her mainly rural, white male precinct committee members. It was safe to say that he didn’t have them at “hello.” But by the end of the meeting, most were sold on Obama’s authenticity – and on his understanding of people like themselves.

So it’s not surprising that in the Illinois primary for president on February 5, Obama beat Hillary almost two-to-one. Most of the state's 103 counties are rural or home to small cities and towns like those in Indiana. Obama carried all but 14.

Does Obama play in Peoria? He carried Peoria County with 69.3 percent of the vote.

Obama won Adams County – home of Quincy, on the Mississippi River – by 60 percent.

He carried rural Henry County in northwest Illinois by 62 percent.

The fifteen counties in the far southern end of the state are physically and culturally-closer to Jackson, Mississippi, than to Chicago. People hunt, have guns, are predominantly white, and are committed to their churches. Obama carried far southern Illinois against Clinton.

Exit polls from the Illinois presidential primary show white men went for Obama 59 percent to 37 percent. Two-thirds of men and women earning less than $50,000/year voted for him. People who live in small cities and rural areas supported Obama 53-to-43.

Some will write off these figures as evidence of his homecourt advantage. But that’s my point. The more that voters – especially white rural voters -- know about Obama, the more they support him.

That’s what happened in Indiana and it’s good news for the general election -- as people across America will get to know Barack better and better over the next five months.

It’s also fitting that the people of Illinois – the people who know him best – were able to play a significant role in the Indiana election that turned the tide and guaranteed him the Democratic nomination.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win.