Emanuel: Suburban Populism Key In '08

Rahm Emanuel has gotten his fair share of criticism from the left blogosphere lately, ourselves included. But we're more than happy to give him some props when they're due. For instance, in a Politico op-ed today, he makes a succinct argument that Democratic-leaning suburbanites could make all the difference this election cycle. He argues that the 2006 midterm elections -- in which Democrats picked up 16 congressional seats in districts that were suburban or exurban -- was not an aberration. The GOP has thrown themselves into an ideological bind, one from which they unlikely to emerge anytime soon, paving the way for a new brand of "suburban populism":

This approach has left Republicans on the wrong side of key issues. Suburban voters are increasingly concerned about the growing threats to their standard of living. These voters have found little comfort in Republicans’ laissez-faire approach to our economy and apparent willingness to protect corporations at all costs. Whether it’s college costs, energy costs or health care costs, Republicans continue to ally themselves with the same special interests that suburban voters believe are the source of the problem, not the solution. At the same time, Republican activism on seemingly private matters has hurt the GOP at the polls. Republicans have lost votes in suburban and exurban communities by consistently opposing potentially lifesaving stem cell research.

What's most encouraging is the number of newly-registered suburban Democrats this cycle. Illinois is a prime example, as Emanuel points out:

In the 2008 Illinois Democratic primary, voter turnout increased by 67.4 percent statewide. With a favorite son on the ballot, that figure isn’t terribly surprising. But dig deeper, and you find that turnout in large suburban counties exploded. DuPage County turnout increased by 116.2 percent, Lake County turnout was up by 103.2 percent and Will County turnout shot up by 121.9 percent.

The trend isn't limited to the Land of Lincoln, either:

Statewide Democratic turnout in Ohio increased by 82.9 percent. In Clermont County, Ohio, turnout was up 170.2 percent. Statewide turnout in Virginia rose by 148.9 percent. In Loudoun County, Va., turnout increased by 272.2 percent. Statewide turnout in Maryland was up 82.4 percent. Charles County, Md., saw turnout grow by 163.5 percent. All three of these counties can be described as suburban or exurban. All three have seen a significant influx of voters, and those voters are voting Democratic.

For more on the the rising tide of suburban Democrats, read our feature on the increasingly blue collar counties and our post on spreading urbanization.

Rahm is nothing if not shrewd and observant. I'm sure he is seeing the paradigm shift represented by the Obama campaign use of sophisticated software and the internet to orchestrate a 21st century populism. Now that drama is not yet played out. We await the general election in November. Rahm (and indeed many of us) may not be convinced yet of three things:

One can it win in November, or since McCain is not the strongest Republican possible, can it beat a strong Republican?

And two, can it be depended upon enough so that politicians no longer have to kow-tow to corporate and wealth interests? Or put another way is it a power base of its own?

And then three, will it be able to withstand the corporate/wealth counter-attack. That is to say can the software/internet populism withstand co-optation sufficient for the Rahms of the world to side with it during critical fights?

I think we all await those results as well.

Jeff Wegerson - Prairie State Blue

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