The eight interstate highways that intersect in the middle of Indiana earned it the state motto "The Crossroads of America." Forty years ago, Democratic hopefuls Robert Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy and favorite son Gov. Roger Branigan criss-crossed those highways, meeting voters and giving speeches in hopes of securing their party's presidential nomination. Since then, the Republican stronghold has only served as a pit stop for candidates en route to adjacent states with more influential primary schedules.
But 2008 is not an ordinary election year. As the primary battle between Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton stretches into its fourth month, the Hoosier state -- with its May 6 primary --is arguably the most crucial contest remaining. Indeed, it is the last delegate-heavy contest where neither candidate holds overwhelming built-in advantages. Clinton herself contends that Indiana Democrats are "going to get to pick the next president of the United States." That sentiment begs the question: who will our neighbors to the east choose?
It has to be a little unnerving for Indiana Democrats to suddenly hold so much influence within their party. Not since 1968 have they gone to the polls before their presumptive presidential nominee was named. And Indiana is never a factor in the general election, voting for Republicans by large margins in all but three elections since 1900. "Indiana is more Republican than any state that is larger, and larger than any state that is more Republican," says Brian Vargus, a political science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. "I see little reason for that to change this year."
Despite its conservative history, Indiana is an ideal battleground for the 2008 Democratic challengers. Geographically, it's jammed between Illinois, Obama's home turf, and Ohio, a state with similar demographics that Clinton won by 10 percentage points in March. It contains sizeable cities (Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Gary), three major college towns (Bloomington, West Lafayette, and South Bend) and wide swaths of aging factory towns and farmland in the south and east.
Considering the rising economic insecurity of the electorate, easing the doubts of working and middle class Hoosiers is a valuable test as well. A classic Rust Belt state with the nation's largest share of manufacturing workers, Indiana has shed 27,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wall Street Journal reports that nearly 53,000 homes in the state received foreclosure notices last year too, a 74 percent bump from 2005. "It seems like when you go to these events," says Matthew Tully, a political columnist for the Indianapolis Star, "the first three things the candidates hear about … have to do with the economy and jobs."
The timing of the primary couldn't be more dramatic, either. There will be 29 more pledged delegates at stake on May 6 -- the date of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries -- than on April 22, when the Pennsylvania primary takes place. If Obama stays close in the Keystone State and wins Indiana and North Carolina -- where recent polling suggests he holds a double digit lead – he would effectively end the campaign by collecting a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates. On the other hand, victories in Pennsylvania and Indiana and a decent showing in North Carolina could give Clinton the ammunition she needs to employ her electability argument and stay in the race. "If Clinton can win Indiana and by a substantial margin," says Vargus, "I think it's going to be very important to the superdelegates."
The candidate who can peel off enough support from the other's base will likely win Indiana. For Obama, that's undoubtedly the northwest corner of the state, Indiana's second most populous region and one where many residents identify more with neighboring Chicago than the remainder of the state. "In Northwest Indiana … they've been hearing about Obama for years," says Tully. "I talked to a lot of people and they almost feel like Obama is their senator." Gary is tailor-made for Obama; a city of 100,000 people, it boasts a high proportion of African Americans (84 percent) and is very close to the Senator's Chicago home (25 miles).
Obama should also run well in the capital of Indianapolis, a city with a growing professional class and a sizeable black population, not to mention around the three universities, where much of the state's youth vote is concentrated. According to an April 2 poll conducted by Research 2000, Obama has a solid lead among African Americans in the state (81 percent to 16 percent) and respondents age 18 to 29 (63 percent to 36 percent).
Like in other parts of the country, Clinton is hoping to consolidate support among the state's white working class. To win, she'll need to replicate her performance in Ohio, where exit polls showed her beating Obama by 15 percentage points among voters who lack a college degree. A national endorsement from AFSCME, one of the state's largest and most politically active labor unions, should pay off in larger cities like Fort Wayne and Evansville. Also important will be Indiana's "boll weevil Democrats," the conservative southern voters based in the Cincinnati and Louisville media markets. Many of these Hoosiers are older, a demographic where Clinton holds a sizeable edge, and Vargus says that rural Indiana Dems have fond memories of former President Bill Clinton.
At the moment, the race is far too close to call. Because most political observers thought the nomination would be secured in February, polling figures were slow to emerge. But in the last two weeks, three new polls have been released, each giving Clinton a slight advantage. ARG and SurveyUSA – arguably this cycle's most prescient polling agency – both put her edge at 9 percentage points, while Research 2000 shows Obama trailing by 3 points but within the margin of error.
Since Clinton and Obama are running neck and neck, a few factors will likely swing the race, and possibly the nomination. The first is the effect of endorsements. Clinton sowed up the support of the state's most popular Democrat, centrist Senator Evan Bayh, immediately after he dropped out of presidential contention himself in late 2006. He's appeared with her at countless rallies and some have speculated that he has his eye on the Vice Presidency. "I don't think Bayh is going to sway a bunch of votes," says Tully, "but it clearly helps Clinton get people to listen and get people to turn out." Key players in the state party leadership followed Bayh’s lead, including the Speaker of the Indiana House, the Indiana Democratic Party state chair, and the last Democratic Governor.
Not to be outdone, Obama garnered the endorsements of a diverse group of 25 state legislators from all four corners of the state. Because "he is driven by the search for the common good,'' Lee Hamilton, a retired Indiana congressman and co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group and 9/11 Commission, has said he will also vote for Obama, a coup for the campaign. Analysts think his endorsement may shore up support both in Southern Indiana and among those who question Obama's national security credentials.
Also crucial will be turnout. The Indiana Democratic Party expects between 700,000 and 950,000 voters to participate, more than double their highest record turnout, set in 1992. History tells us that high turnout benefits Obama, but where those new voters register will be essential. The primary is also open all party affiliations, another potential boon for Obama, who polls exceedingly well among Indiana independents (60 percent to 34 percent, according to SurveyUSA). But Leonard Williams, a political science professor at Manchester College, says the format has a caveat; by casting a vote in the Democratic primary, a voter essentially promises that he or she plans to vote for Democrats in the fall election. "There may not be all that many crossover votes as you might be led to expect by some of the national media coverage and the efforts of Rush Limbaugh and others to try and get Republicans to vote for Clinton," he says.
Racial politics, an ongoing subtext in this year's battle, could also play a deciding role. On the trail, Tully hasn't heard voters discuss race or the controversy surrounding Rev. Jeremiah Wright in great detail. But if you buy the "Race Chasm" argument popularized by In These Times senior editor David Sirota, in which Obama struggles in states where African-American constitute six to 17 percent of the population, then Clinton could perform well, as nine percent of Indiana's population is black.
Finally, the result of Pennsylvania's primary will have a direct bearing on Indiana voters. If Obama can close the gap there -- as some recent polls suggests he can -- it will be easy for his campaign to build momentum in the two weeks following.
Given the stakes, it’s no surprise that the presidential campaigns have flooded the state's borders. Clinton sees Indiana as a must-win contest, and her family has been rocketing around the state for weeks meeting voters and making populist appeals. While Obama hasn’t visited nearly as frequently, his campaign opened 10 offices there and has television ads running across the state. Hoosiers are delighted with the attention. "People are very excited," says Williams. "After 40 years of not seeming to matter, they are very happy to have the chance to participate."
Images used under a Creative Commons license by Flickr users OZinOH, samuelalove, and Indiana Stan.
Post new comment