Progress Illinois

It won't be an enviable task, but it could be a necessary one. Eventually a trusted Democratic figure may have to step between two political juggernauts -- the Obama and Clinton campaigns -- and end this ongoing primary battle.

An article in this week's issue of Newsweek singles out Rep. Rahm Emanuel -- the only member of the Illinois congressional delegation yet to endorse a presidential candidate -- for that role:

Who will tell Hillary Clinton that the time has come to fold her tent? (Or, in a less likely scenario, Barack Obama?) [...]

It may be that the most obvious candidate is Emanuel. He is an old friend of Barack Obama's campaign strategist, David Axelrod (so close that Axelrod signed the ketuba, a Jewish marriage contract, at Emanuel's wedding, an honor that usually goes to a best friend). At the same time, Emanuel worked on Bill Clinton's '92 campaign and was an effective operative in the Clinton White House, and he is tight with various Clinton advisers like James Carville and former campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle (whom he calls his "little sister" from the Chicago political wars). He has the loyalty of many Democratic congressmen, whom he recruited and for whom he prodigiously fund-raised, helping to secure the Democratic majority in the 2006 election.

As his colleagues from Illinois have steadily thrown their support behind Barack, Emanuel has received his fair share of scorn from local Obama supporters. However, if his carefully preserved neutrality ultimately leaves him in a position to bring a peaceful end to the primary -- and in Obama's favor -- all will certainly be forgiven.

Obviously, it's a role that Emanuel is hoping to avoid. In the Newsweek article, he offered up a "sneaking suspicion" that the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6 will decide the race:

If Obama upsets Clinton in Pennsylvania on April 22, all sides seem to agree that it's game over. If Clinton wins narrowly—by less than 10 points—the noise will grow louder for her to drop out and crescendo if she loses Indiana. "I have a sneaking suspicion it's over after North Carolina and Indiana [May 6]," says Emanuel. "It will be clear by then who the presumptive nominee is."

As a side note with regards to Pennsylvania, a new ARG poll released today provided even more evidence that the race there is tightening. The survey found Obama and Clinton tied at 45 percent. In late March, the same poll gave Clinton a 12-point lead.